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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1307

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 30, 2022 01:39:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 300139
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300138=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-300345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1307
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0838 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

    Valid 300138Z - 300345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across southern North Dakota into
    eastern South Dakota and extreme west-central Minnesota.

    DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough continues its eastward
    progression across the Black Hills region toward the central
    Dakotas. While high based and moisture poor (PW values are less than
    one inch at UNR/PIR and near one inch at BIS), scattered convection
    has matured ahead of this feature both along the advancing cold
    front and near the pre-frontal trough. Over the last hour or so,
    convection has increased along the ND/SD border west of MBG. This
    activity should spread east over the next few hours, likely
    progressing into the northwest portions of ww415 by 03z. While some boundary-layer cooling has likely lessened DCAPE some across eastern
    SD, very steep lapse rates remain favorable for efficient downdrafts
    as this activity spreads towards MHE-ATY.

    ..Darrow.. 06/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Di_5fnA8n6NMCnaqV1xrG4BOcO9IyqbxbIDHlHitDmMV8FoMPK1DvSfA60xkuHqvYhgvaNol= oc7wg-08k_LZEh6mp4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43549962 46649938 46649600 43549642 43549962=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 18:49:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 271849
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271848=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1307
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...northeast NM...southeast CO...western OK
    Panhandle...northwest TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271848Z - 272045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Monitoring for convective initiation near Raton Mesa.=20
    Subsequent storm development will gradually spread east into
    southeast CO and the TX-OK Panhandles. The stronger storms will be
    potentially capable of peak wind gusts 60-75 mph and large hail
    diameters 1-2 inches.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a towering cumulus
    field over escarpment in northeast NM. Surface mesoanalysis shows
    the western extension of morning thunderstorm outflow extends into
    northwest OK and southwest KS where observation sites show easterly
    component to flow. This easterly upslope flow is resulting in upper
    60s dewpoints in Texas County, OK (middle OK Panhandle county).=20
    Meanwhile, strengthening southwesterly flow is overspreading the
    Sangre de Cristos early this afternoon (40-55 kt at 500 mb) on the
    southern portion of a mid-level speed max over the central Rockies.=20
    Deeper mixing of the boundary layer is occurring across northeast NM
    with surface winds veering to the west-southwest and dewpoints fall
    into the 30s and lower 40s near I-25.

    As the developing convection initially in a drier airmass encounters increasingly rich low-level moisture and a more buoyant airmass
    towards the OK/TX/CO border, expecting thunderstorms to rapidly
    intensify. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the
    stronger storms. The severe risk will increase as this activity
    approaches the longitude of the CO/KS border.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5aigvGI3JvoFI4vckWUyz957r9pKOwczAkxkDP6JnqEe8GiJsffOnJvmNTD6W0CrCYKu61-PX= ZIZomFnGfE-weK9qG0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36760440 37380350 38340252 38390226 38190200 36110200
    35800227 35710259 36180444 36760440=20


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