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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1306

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 30, 2022 00:55:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 300055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300054=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-300300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0754 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

    Areas affected...Western South Dakota and Northwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

    Valid 300054Z - 300300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is shifting into the northern and far
    eastern portions of ww414.

    DISCUSSION...Back edge of short-wave trough appears to be near the
    Black Hills and this feature is translating east toward central SD.
    In the wake of this short wave, surface front is surging southeast
    across the northern High Plains and currently arcs across western ND
    into northeast WY. Robust thunderstorms have evolved along this
    boundary and are expected to continue spreading east toward MBG over
    the next few hours. Locally damaging winds are likely noted with
    this convection. Otherwise, a multifaceted cluster of strong/severe
    storms has evolved over south-central/central SD. This cluster is
    advancing northeast along a pre-frontal trough that extends across
    eastern SD into west-central MN. Very hot temperatures, although
    cooling a bit now, developed along this boundary which should aid
    downdrafts due to very steep lapse rates. Severe threat should
    gradually shift downstream ahead of the short wave.

    Given the latest trends, severe threat appears to be decreasing
    across the southwestern half of ww414.

    ..Darrow.. 06/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VsfCdwix2x2TRZ9oleLkNZnJhVfDbSffqe21Oe_HPSzXJiOYRFcFQ1ctpUA75ad6OIqrfblh= LjwfR8BRlOV56n-fzg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42180399 45350397 45749953 42579952 42180399=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 18:43:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 271843
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271843=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-272045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...Delmarva Peninsula...northern Mid Atlantic vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271843Z - 272045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may generate
    consolidating outflows with gusty winds on their leading edge as
    they advance eastward and southeastward into coastal areas through
    5-7 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of mid/upper
    troughing overspreading the region, increasing thunderstorm
    development is already well underway near/east of weak surface
    troughing to the lee of the Appalachians. This is largely focused
    where the environment remains seasonably moist, from northern
    Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania. Relatively warm mid/upper
    levels with weak lapse rates, however, are still generally limiting
    mixed-layer CAPE to around 1500+ J/kg. This could still increase a
    bit further with additional heating this afternoon.

    Deep-layer south-southwesterly mean flow and shear are rather modest
    around 20-25 kts, but this could contribute to some organization of
    convection as convectively generated surface cold pools gradually
    consolidate. This may be accompanied by a strengthening gust front,
    mainly where boundary-layer temperatures are warmest (and low-level
    lapse rates steepest) across far eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
    Peninsula into southern New Jersey. However, peak gusts seem likely
    to remain mostly below 50 kt.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4a0iqVNUDGeNv-pgqVR0WU4-bHptSINkjsh1VegdUvc-Q3xI_xJATN45EaDEu_Fd09bmiyR6K= a2Sr4Wsa4FCTy3n42w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38747684 39217607 39917570 39667473 39127494 38527485
    38397514 37607570 37037711 38747684=20


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