ACUS11 KWNS 292225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292225=20
SDZ000-300030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Areas affected...South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 292225Z - 300030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain possible with convection across
South Dakota this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch appears
warranted immediately downstream.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude, mid-level short-wave trough is
flattening the ridge over eastern WY early this evening. This
feature is dislodging the lee surface trough which has now shifted
into central SD, arcing southwest across the eastern NE Panhandle
into northeast CO. Very hot boundary-layer conditions have developed
along this surface trough and dry adiabatic lower tropospheric lapse
rates are contributing to cloud bases near 600mb where temperatures
are in excess of 100F. Latest radar data suggests scattered
high-based convection over central SD could be slowly organizing as
it approaches the eastern edge of ww414 near PIR. This activity
should spread east of the watch around 2330z and a new watch will
likely be issued.

..Darrow.. 06/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82bjz5tuxz6xgUU4nV-klGJHowTMWHQJei6WOC-TgIAKo98h5mxvwaelkWtp2kZ13PXOR59uM= m6_RNy9aUvIfNWXgyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 44580205 45609843 43899766 43060115 44580205=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 271809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271809=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...western Nebraska...adjacent northeastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 271809Z - 272045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Rapidly intensifying scattered thunderstorm development
appears possible as early as 2-4 PM MDT, with strongest storms
becoming capable of producing very large hail and severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Modest low-level moistening on south-southeasterly
near-surface flow into lee surface troughing is ongoing. This is
contributing to increasing potential instability, beneath very steep
mid-level lapse rates associated with a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air advecting east of the Front Range and Laramie
Mountains vicinity. With continued insolation, mixed-layer CAPE is
forecast to become maximized in a corridor across western Nebraska
by 20-22Z, as forcing for ascent accompanying a short wave impulse
progressing east of the higher terrain contributes to weakening
inhibition.

As southwesterly mid-level flow strengthens in excess of 50+ kt
(around 500 mb), the environment appears likely to become conducive
to scattered supercell development. Once storms initiate,
intensification may be rapid with a few becoming capable of
producing very large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_mRiw3eG4Q0z0kAXz3PB77X4-9Fct1svuLFrCz5FbTT5ox4zhcJOq8W8SRWdJEYxzzQibswjx= UkC3ok1bLfUlt5PNAU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43600146 40770070 40160135 40550248 41210285 42190412
43760342 43600146=20


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