ACUS11 KWNS 290234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290233=20
MTZ000-290430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 290233Z - 290430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...Gusty winds will accompany convection as it spreads into
northeast Montana.

DISCUSSION...A semi-organized cluster of convection that matured
over central MT has progressed into the eastern portions of ww413.
This activity continues its northeast forward propagation into an
air mass that has gradually cooled, but remains adequately buoyant
for maintaining robust updrafts. Gusty winds have been noted with
these storms and locally severe remains possible for the next few
hours as it spreads across the plains, primarily between GGW and
MLS, eventually progressing into far northeast MT where further
weakening is anticipated.

..Darrow.. 06/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2ChnmwgcLKit6Sjejf5Nbzu_wWCSHOw3jI7aw92vJgPuxcH2XOi668zTNlUHEK_0DkpfQlna= JXqxLxxSXHOc191TwE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46640646 48010751 48570571 47160475 46640646=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 271350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271350=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-271445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...east-central and eastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 271350Z - 271445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe gusts are possible with a thunderstorm cluster as
it moves east-southeast along a buoyancy gradient this morning.

DISCUSSION...A recently intensified thunderstorm cluster over
central and north-central OK has produced severe gusts on the OK
Mesonet (79 mph at Perkins and 60 mph at Marena in Payne County).=20
Surface analysis shows mid 60s dewpoints near and immediately ahead
of the thunderstorms over east-central OK and drier low-level air
was located over northeast OK and northwest AR. The 12 UTC Norman,
OK raob showed 3500 J/kg MUCAPE with relatively weak low-level flow.
It seems the primary impetus for severe gusts is originating in
part due to the steep mid-level lapse rates (8.3 deg C/km in the
700-500 mb layer). Given the progression of the cluster, it seems
plausible a risk for severe gusts will continue for the next few
hours across east-central and eastern OK.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aQcIqaWk7EboAry9u6GKhi_1gvc7FUtZAAaD0qGri-SMktxbMl6rDUvk-ujLAA77bPUUKLhZ= -NORJL6gGcLnKEJm-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36119649 35779467 35409424 34989437 34749480 35279653
35689666 36119649=20


=3D =3D =3D
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