• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1301

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 29, 2022 01:26:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 290126
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290125=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-290300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0825 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central into northeast Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290125Z - 290300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An instance or two of large hail and damaging gusts may
    accompany very isolated storms over the next couple of hours. A
    brief landspout tornado also cannot be completely ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Discrete, high-based supercell structures have matured
    immediately ahead of a cold front across portions of north-central
    into northeast Iowa. The storm in northeast Iowa has a history of
    producing marginally severe hail and a possible gustnado/brief
    landspout tornado. The surface airmass ahead of these storms is in
    the upper 70s/low 80s F, overspread by a well-mixed boundary layer,
    where steep low-level lapse rates are present. 50+ kts of effective
    bulk shear and modest forcing along the front suggest that
    supercells will be the primary convective mode. The storm mode and
    steep lapse rates will support a very isolated damaging gust/large
    hail threat for the next hour or two before nocturnal cooling sets
    in. 01Z mesoanalysis shows modest vertical low-level vorticity and
    0-3 km CAPE along the front. As such, a brief landspout tornado
    cannot be completely ruled out, mainly within the next hour.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9OaRccspj5ebLn9-Px646JRIL028_vttV8yTlxQ7fZlcoJmYt10k18zHe0lOKEOX5SS6Pjlx_= inLyHqx0gYw90rvdXE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42439411 43029312 43489202 43459127 43279119 43119114
    42819113 42559127 42419183 42309278 42259353 42439411=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 09:34:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 270934
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270934=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-271130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0434 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

    Areas affected...Far Eastern TX Panhandle...Southwest OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270934Z - 271130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible as the storm
    cluster over the eastern TX Panhandle moves into southwest OK.

    DISCUSSION...An initially elevated thunderstorm cluster has grown
    upscale, organizing along its southeastward-progressing cold pool.
    Air mass downstream across southwestern OK has strong low-level
    stability (i.e. recent RAP soundings show -250 J/kg of MLCIN). Even
    so, moderate mid-level moisture is in place (i.e. 850-mb dewpoints
    around 20 deg C) beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, supporting
    strong buoyancy with recent mesoanalysis estimated MUCAPE exceeding
    4000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is also moderate, with 40 to 45 kt
    in place across much of western OK. All of these factors suggest
    some intensification of the ongoing cluster is possible, although
    questions remain if sufficient cold pool-vertical shear balance can
    be maintained given the strong low-level stability. Current
    expectations are for the low-level stability to contribute to
    gradually decreasing storm intensity. However, another scenario
    exists where the cluster is able to maintain a favorable cold pool
    balance and maintain its strength as it progress east-southeastward.
    Convective trends will be monitored closely for signs of a more
    persistent severe threat downstream.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ek1XVcIRalokhxZOQbMfMEqQykOLP9pYXSurOODaQSDEibvdEKW7CG4u-NxkCaJ19_rrK_v4= kfFO3B1euyx7h50UEs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35600016 35679884 35239805 34279844 34750028 35600016=20


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