• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0255

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 14, 2022 23:52:10
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142352
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142351=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-150115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0651 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast/Eastern TX/Northwest LA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

    Valid 142351Z - 150115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Numerous strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this
    evening. New WW is being considered soon for portions of southeast
    Texas into northwest Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...Strong, dynamic short-wave trough continues its
    east-southeast movement toward the lower Sabine River Valley. Very
    cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates will spread north of
    the jet across east TX toward western LA later this evening.
    Numerous strong/severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this
    feature within two primary bands, 1) immediately ahead of the
    dryline, 2) from south of the watch to near GGG. The secondary
    corridor of developing supercells will need to be addressed with a
    new WW as much of this activity is now spreading out of ww45. While environmental parameters continue to favor supercells and possibly a
    couple tornadoes, the primary risks may remain hail/wind.

    ..Darrow.. 03/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rhlsK7IyUB9XjSfszEQFO2CKahX3eOPWuFr1XMOIX6h9J3V6V3iTc5jpI-yA7tLEROlsC5rn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29609743 32429473 32689358 31499374 29249619 29609743=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 05, 2023 21:41:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 052141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052141=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-060145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 052141Z - 060145Z

    SUMMARY...Areas of wet, heavy snow are possible in southern
    Minnesota this afternoon and early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Ascent along an 850-700 mb frontal zone has continued
    to shift eastward through the day. Subtle shortwave troughs evident
    in water vapor imagery also are contributing to locally strong lift
    aloft. Recent surface and dual-pol radar observations in southern
    Minnesota show a broken band of heavy snowfall. KDP values from KMPX
    and KFSD suggest efficient dendritic growth aloft. Furthermore,
    elevated instability may contribute to locally more intense snowfall
    given recent lightning flashes from NLDN. Temperatures at the
    surface are generally above freezing, but dewpoints are low enough
    to support evaporative cooling to around freezing within heavier
    precipitation. That, coupled with the low-level temperature profile
    near freezing, will lead to a likely wet, heavy snow with perhaps
    rates around an inch per hour but not necessarily significant
    accumulations.

    ..Wendt.. 03/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-LAnr32BjuQzcVYECPNvg9c2tKuF7el24Yn3PbqrNGPaqaBBkPlT7d9PisMJaINXWAfREKDcK= E5V_W1xULzUWpfLlQ4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 44809472 44749337 44499235 43799191 43389226 43459449
    43539588 43999649 44609578 44809472=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 15, 2024 10:21:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 151021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151021=20
    TXZ000-151215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0521 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151021Z - 151215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to potentially severe storms possible this
    morning. Large hail will be the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
    southwest TX this morning. This activity is possibly being aided by
    a subtle midlevel vorticity maximum moving out of northeast Mexico,
    and some increase in storm coverage and intensity will be possible
    over the next few hours. Low-level east/northeasterly flow has
    transported relatively rich low-level moisture beneath steep
    midlevel lapse rates, with MUCAPE increasing into the 1500-2000 J/kg
    range per recent objective mesoanalyses. Midlevel flow is not overly
    strong, but low-level easterlies veering to southwesterly aloft are
    supporting effective shear of greater than 40 kt, and a supercell or
    two could evolve with time this morning if storms can mature within
    the subtly forced environment.=20

    Large hail (potentially in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range) will
    likely be the primary hazard. Coverage of the severe threat may
    remain rather isolated through the morning, but watch issuance is
    possible if multiple strong/severe storms appear imminent.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nTsH56nUTgd3C_p_wq9bzsVf-BY0GGfBRIkxzUQgZTgW-Rd3UJHbmeMaY2RRMvhtu5HDrvHy= oQASYxq-FSWvREhXm8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29890204 29930231 30070292 30370292 30670303 30960260
    31320166 31350041 31110006 30339936 29909944 29379986
    28900061 29310106 29840155 29890204=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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