ACUS11 KWNS 282020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282020=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 282020Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a threat for strong/locally
damaging gusts into this evening across parts of southwest into
central Montana.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain of
southwest MT this afternoon in an environment characterized by weak
instability but moderate to strong westerly flow. Effective shear
greater than 40 kt will result in organized cells. Strong heating
has allowed low-level lapse rates to become quite steep, while
forecast soundings indicate high-based convection within a
deeply-mixed and dry sub-cloud layer. This will foster potential for
strong gusts with these cells. While moisture is rather modest, and
PW values generally less than 1 inch, increasing midlevel flow and
steep midlevel lapse rates could also support small hail in stronger convection. However, the main severe hazard expected is damaging
gusts into this evening. Convective trends will be monitored and
severe thunderstorm watch may become necessary in the next couple of
hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/28/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96wgQdTxSofsVavbUGMILE939Kd-N76I1qOkfvyWtQXBA6tazzPBQ-YcPSqbmiOx_OV7y_F3d= idCK7U0PqU-UqKy260$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 45851283 46541274 47001245 47191233 47921142 48291053
48400992 48270909 47970870 47500855 46970865 45880895
45460915 45080997 44891135 45181241 45851283=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 270422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270421 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-270615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern South Carolina/eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

Valid 270421Z - 270615Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE TEXT

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk persists across eastern North Carolina, and
the northern half of South Carolina, ahead of ongoing storms.=20
Locally gusty/damaging winds will be the primary severe risks over
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows two clusters of strong/locally
severe storms -- one arcing band of storms cross the North Carolina
Piedmont, and a second, west-to-east band of storms crossing parts
of northern and central South Carolina. Given the pre-frontal axis
of instability (mixed-layer CAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range),
storms will likely continue over the next few hours, before
eventually moving offshore.

Until then, with ample shear being provided by the moderate
deep-layer cyclonic westerlies aloft, potential for locally strong
wind gusts will continue with the strongest storms/storm segments.

..Goss.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5wCBt8W1sR8wAuBfqzlYxDDMUxHvgJuOXhG92utjjMxCJrt9Qcmi7F9kXzDazkSbu10SwgERc= DlxB_DtU1i3boreCwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33358196 33848196 34358043 35237973 35667834 36517656
36507572 35657521 33097900 33358196=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 270415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270415=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-270615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern South Carolina/eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

Valid 270415Z - 270615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk persists across eastern North Carolina, and
the northern half of South Carolina, ahead of ongoing storms.=20
Locally gusty/damaging winds will be the primary severe risks over
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows two clusters of strong/locally
severe storms -- one arcing band of storms cross the North Carolina
Piedmont, and a second, west-to-east band of storms crossing parts
of northern and central South Dakota. Given the pre-frontal axis of instability (mixed-layer CAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range),
storms will likely continue over the next few hours, before
eventually moving offshore.

Until then, with ample shear being provided by the moderate
deep-layer cyclonic westerlies aloft, potential for locally strong
wind gusts will continue with the strongest storms/storm segments.

..Goss.. 06/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bxR4Vli4mOH7lkpdl_9N-wO0fiB9pjnboCzC0s7k_LQ3WlToBeqiyTNOEn4d_I8eVzKku-zX= 2Hzx1mZGZNmFrC_Y6U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33358196 33848196 34358043 35237973 35667834 36517656
36507572 35657521 33097900 33358196=20


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