• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1293

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 26, 2022 00:17:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 260017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260016=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-260145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1293
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0716 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

    Areas affected...Extreme southeast Iowa...northeast
    Missouri...central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

    Valid 260016Z - 260145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts
    and isolated large hail continues across the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Regional composite radar data as of 0005z shows a line
    of strong thunderstorms from just south of the Quad Cities southwest
    into Clark County in extreme northeast MO. The storms were
    developing along a cold front and were moving east/southeast along a
    gradient in MLCAPE, with between 2000 and 3500 J/kg in place in the
    vicinity of these storms. Farther south, an isolated thunderstorm
    had developed within a confluence zone over Montgomery County, MO.
    Westerly midlevel flow was contributing to around 35-40 kts of
    deep-layer shear as sampled by the KDVN 21z special sounding, and
    this is sufficient for organized storms, initially including
    supercell structures posing a risk for damaging winds and isolated
    large hail. Expectations are for additional development to occur
    along the cold front into northeast MO over the next few hours, with
    a line of storms moving southeast across the watch area this
    evening. An increase in the damaging wind risk is expected as this
    occurs.

    ..Bunting.. 06/26/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kvf60SV6Fe16LgYQS4o-N2gpgamJZBU34XWRVaCRgH7iKM4aTCbLI3r3ugUCHmbFI0nfmrJ-= 3kt5h0cJdb14h4Fnr0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40639172 41429056 41588991 41558905 41318856 40358832
    39358852 38818894 38669008 38609054 38689123 38889178
    39259204 39689221 40419223 40639172=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 27, 2023 01:13:55
    ACUS11 KWNS 270113
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270113=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-270215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1293
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...across parts of southern Virginia and into the
    Delmarva aera

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...395...

    Valid 270113Z - 270215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393, 395
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk continues locally across portions of Virginia
    and the Chesapeake Bay region.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows clusters of strong/locally
    severe storms ongoing across the southern half of Virginia -- within
    parts of WW 393 and 395. With an amply unstable and sheared
    environment, risk is expected to continue over the next couple of
    hours.

    Watch 393 is currently set to expire at 27/02Z. Given persistence
    of isolated, vigorous storms within this watch, local extension of
    this watch, or possibly a westward extension of WW 395, may be
    considered to cover lingering risk.

    ..Goss.. 06/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4D_7Hi1FHKPm-LMP2hOt6yH8hwac6hK2mtb7L_-oindrbe4IpiQ1AHW_ZVpyE7gM94qkaGi47= jkPoONH6D44x7VDcBw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36537952 36808004 38007880 38527511 36427547 36537952=20


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