• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1291

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 25, 2022 20:45:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 252045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252044=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1291
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

    Areas affected...Much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252044Z - 252145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat will continue into the
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Despite warm temperatures aloft and very weak lapse
    rates, thunderstorms have developed in a very hot and moist airmass
    across Alabama and the Florida Panhandle where temperatures are in
    the 90s to near 100F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This has
    yielded 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. However, despite the moderate to
    strong instability, the intensity of these storms have been muted by
    the aforementioned weak mid-level lapse rates and very weak shear
    (<20 knots of flow in the lowest 6 km). Nonetheless, the airmass is
    very moist with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches which, combined with
    the weak shear, supports an environment favorable for water loaded
    downdrafts and the potential for some damaging wind gusts.=20

    Much of the airmass across southern Alabama and the western Florida
    Panhandle has been worked over by earlier convection. Expect
    additional strong to isolated severe storms across central and
    northern Alabama where 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE remains and visible
    satellite shows towering/clustering cumulus. This is likely where
    the greatest severe threat will persist through the evening.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!534FkrSnDnKVOVmeMXgxlFIArYqyePR4rPMvpoEj0Gdi5wRziwevGfxgwNd_30YfVEm5g0IXc= COstN3qXGkuUYPIcW4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30828816 33048815 34638736 34748610 34068548 31578475
    30158451 29578454 29538544 30028600 30278660 30198741
    30168801 30168830 30828816=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 23:08:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 262308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262308=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-270115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1291
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...southern half of Virginia southwestward across
    North Carolina...and east to the Chesapeake/Delmarva area

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...394...

    Valid 262308Z - 270115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393, 394
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat -- including potential for large hail and a
    few damaging gusts -- continues across WW 393 and 394, and may
    spread eastward into the Chesapeake Bay region over the next couple
    of hours, possibly requiring new watch issuance east of WW 393.

    DISCUSSION...A band of strong/locally severe thunderstorms is
    ongoing from central Virginia southwestward to western North
    Carolina -- within WW 393 and 394. The storms are occurring with a moist/unstable environment near and ahead of the weak cold front
    moving slowly eastward across the area. Enhanced
    southwesterly/westerly flow aloft on the southeast periphery of the
    mid-level cyclone is providing shear sufficient for
    organized/rotating storms, with risk expected to continue locally
    over the next several hours.

    One cluster of storms in particular -- crossing
    Hanover/Goochland/Powhatan counties in central Virginia will
    approach eastern fringes of WW 393 in the next hour to
    hour-and-a-half. We will continue to monitor areas downstream
    across southeastern Virginia/the Chesapeake region for
    possible/additional WW issuance.

    ..Goss.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jf-LFVLHHbC9OrQiU98CIQT9KcD1DFa5pinFa4tkF9PPVIm9bECkTqru5MIoNXuLlOsFa2AT= _mHmSx0ZXbJqDX9JO0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 38347696 38447521 36717601 36317817 34857982 35158158
    36228121 37337928 38007854 38347696=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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