• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1290

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 25, 2022 19:17:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 251917
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251917=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-252115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1290
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

    Areas affected...southeastern Iowa...west-central Illinois...and
    northern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251917Z - 252115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Surface-based thunderstorm development is expected in the
    next couple of hours over southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri.=20
    Strong instability coupled with sufficient vertical wind shear
    should support thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
    severe hail. Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible, pending
    convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning convection across the region,
    daytime heating has removed most of the convective inhibition for
    mixed-layer parcels. As a result, boundary-layer cumulus are
    increasing over northern Missouri and southern Iowa as mid-level
    clouds overspread the region from the southwest. This mid-level
    ascent is associated with ~40 knots of west-southwesterly flow
    across Iowa (per the latest DMX VWP), which should help support
    thunderstorm organization. Given the very moist and unstable airmass
    (MLCAPE >2500 J/kg) across northern Missouri nosing into
    southeastern Iowa, robust updraft development is expected for
    initially discrete storms (including supercell structures) from
    20-22Z, posing a risk of damaging winds and hail. The expectation
    is that these storms will merge and grow upscale this evening with
    linear forcing as they move eastward into Illinois, resulting in a
    transition to primarily a severe wind threat.

    ..Jirak/Hart.. 06/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9rsxnNSSaCWZCGBabw7nqPHUWnepr0cG5TQk0YV3BIx1b01B1toM1kTQJBB2r1La2URQ90ao9= nACMpzIddH6PHkY7QA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39799425 40639392 41299351 41759269 42079176 41959065
    41279018 40569009 39909037 39589081 39399125 39239168
    39189211 39219267 39319384 39799425=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 22:55:55
    ACUS11 KWNS 262255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262255=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-270100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1290
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern CO into the western OK/TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262255Z - 270100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing high-based storms may pose a risk for isolated
    damaging gusts and small hail this evening. Given isolated storm
    coverage, a WW is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
    showed initial updrafts were deepening across portions of the
    southern High Plains. Warm temperatures along a diffuse dryline have
    removed most inhibition from the higher terrain to the west. Some
    inhibition still remains farther east and may slowly diminish
    tonight. Isolated and high-based storm development is possible
    across the southern High Plains over the next couple of hours.
    Vertical shear varies intensity with portions of southeastern CO
    supporting 40+ kt and some potential for storm organization and
    supercells. However, much of warm and well mixed air mass farther
    south remains weakly sheared. With T/TD spread of 25-30+ degrees,
    damaging downbursts appear to be the primary threat, though some
    hail is possible if a sustained high-based supercell is able to
    become established. Given the weak broad-scale forcing, storm
    coverage should remain isolated and a WW appears unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8l7CZPhTFQFj4WuoyWF43OKfyJllOo_gSn-pym8k6uWQwuJcR5g8q3mfXO1ibYna5nUuSP9Q2= aRs-WEf-IoZAreTd98$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35220399 36650390 37670284 37680192 37250156 35900193
    35050238 34370277 33800309 33340339 33370380 33630399
    35220399=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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