ACUS11 KWNS 251917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251917=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-252115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Areas affected...southeastern Iowa...west-central Illinois...and
northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 251917Z - 252115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Surface-based thunderstorm development is expected in the
next couple of hours over southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri.=20
Strong instability coupled with sufficient vertical wind shear
should support thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
severe hail. Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible, pending
convective trends.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning convection across the region,
daytime heating has removed most of the convective inhibition for
mixed-layer parcels. As a result, boundary-layer cumulus are
increasing over northern Missouri and southern Iowa as mid-level
clouds overspread the region from the southwest. This mid-level
ascent is associated with ~40 knots of west-southwesterly flow
across Iowa (per the latest DMX VWP), which should help support
thunderstorm organization. Given the very moist and unstable airmass
(MLCAPE >2500 J/kg) across northern Missouri nosing into
southeastern Iowa, robust updraft development is expected for
initially discrete storms (including supercell structures) from
20-22Z, posing a risk of damaging winds and hail. The expectation
is that these storms will merge and grow upscale this evening with
linear forcing as they move eastward into Illinois, resulting in a
transition to primarily a severe wind threat.
..Jirak/Hart.. 06/25/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9rsxnNSSaCWZCGBabw7nqPHUWnepr0cG5TQk0YV3BIx1b01B1toM1kTQJBB2r1La2URQ90ao9= nACMpzIddH6PHkY7QA$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 39799425 40639392 41299351 41759269 42079176 41959065
41279018 40569009 39909037 39589081 39399125 39239168
39189211 39219267 39319384 39799425=20
=3D =3D =3D
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