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ACUS11 KWNS 060432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060432=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30...

Valid 060432Z - 060600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds, and a brief tornado, continues
across WW 30.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-continuous line of
thunderstorms moving east-northeastward at around 50kt across
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. The storms remain west of
the Milwaukee and Chicago metro areas, but will affect these areas
within the next hour. While instability continues to gradually
diminish, now at or below 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, very strong
southwesterly flow aloft -- in excess of 60 kt at 1 km and
increasing to 80 kt at mid levels -- will support continued risk for
damaging winds. Observation sites over northern Illinois have
reported gusts in the 55 to 70 kt range in the past half hour, and
expect severe-caliber gusts to affect the Milwaukee area soon, and
portions of the Chicago suburbs shortly thereafter.

..Goss.. 03/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p5Ko6Izw5lRk_8pdGwIyfFrM2CpD6ncpe8LAzBbYsR89UpTjby--VFf8ZQpMFUQ9EGBU9MN5$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 43308853 43148790 42328761 41288765 40368846 40078923
40308968 41218923 42048849 42618852 43308853=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 271017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271017=20
CAZ000-271515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...northern California

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 271017Z - 271515Z

SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to
continue to develop and spread inland across the Klamath Mountains
and northern Coastal Ranges, perhaps portions of the northern Sierra
Nevada, with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour by 5-10 AM PST, if
not a bit earlier.

DISCUSSION...As another cold mid-level trough (including 500 mb
temps near or below -35 C) digs into the northern Pacific coast,
forcing for ascent along a frontal zone associated with an occluded
offshore cyclone has recently supported intensifying convective
development with embedded thunderstorms approaching the southern Oregon/northern California coast. Although it is not clear if
destabilization aided by cooling aloft will maintain thunderstorm
development, the remnant band of convection is forecast to gradually
spread inland of coastal areas, across the Klamath Mountains and
northern Coastal Ranges, perhaps portions of the northern Sierra
Nevada, by the 13-17Z time frame, if not before.

Coincident with this band of convection, forecast soundings indicate
lift becoming maximized in the cold mid-level layers (around -15 C)
most conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth. Coupled with
orographic forcing aided by modest (30-40 kt) south-southwesterly
upslope flow, heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour
appear likely for at least a few hours this morning, with snow
levels perhaps falling below 2000 feet.

..Kerr.. 02/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fcqfWbyhs5FItoWh3TDofgfBVaWBaZ9OYIn7u9hrsPZ-JAhG9Qwapa05hVXbdLaPdpm_dTHX= jYbCph6ltdCUTfPFe4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...EKA...

LAT...LON 40492372 41762339 41782266 41722211 41222138 40522136
40652207 40092275 38822277 40492372=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 080304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080303=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...

Valid 080303Z - 080400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered convection will linger across mainly the
northern/central portions of ww31 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface front is gradually advancing south across the
southern High Plains this evening but convection has not developed
along this boundary to any degree across northwest OK. Most robust
convection has gradually weakened, partially due to weaker buoyancy
due to onset of nocturnal cooling. Additionally, 1km AGL flow has
gradually veered and this is not particularly advantageous given the
decreasing instability. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited steep lapse
rates, but PW values are seasonally low around 3/4". With
boundary-layer decoupling it may become increasingly difficult to
maintain organized severe updrafts. While an isolated hail report
can not be ruled out, overall trends suggest severe threat will
remain marginal from this point forward.

..Darrow.. 03/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5DEPm5BOg0WGVQwxyq9hFoJtlUqP33UqOcVgRfGLTCLEURZpOSyTOXaM3DlC_wVCKPWt2ieSa= 3VdWp1YfSDCoN8zFNw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31070142 36979900 36989700 31079956 31070142=20


=3D =3D =3D
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