• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1288

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 25, 2022 04:20:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 250420
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250419=20
    NEZ000-250645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1119 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250419Z - 250645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat may continue for a few more
    hours across southern Nebraska. The threat should become more
    isolated and marginal with time, and weather watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Hastings shows a
    short bowing line segment about 40 statute miles to the east of
    McCook. This line is located along an east-to-west axis of strong
    instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000
    J/kg range. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Hastings has
    0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, along with strong
    directional shear in the lowest two kilometers. This should be
    favorable to continue an isolated severe threat for another hour or
    two. However, a cap is exists further to the east along the
    instability axis. As the short line segment moves into this capped
    airmass, a weakening trend is expected to develop.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NRgsOmsnMxBFSKDx5F9LM5NjAzMEMspmlZG9AIYLfwci1zdg6oYMu_d7r-zxRz8wNcXfFqVl= evFjMpgj4kGD3_mnNQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40729670 40899771 40899955 40550017 40160007 40099937
    40119837 40029684 40729670=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 20:55:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 262055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262055=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-262230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeast/coastal
    GA...coastal/central SC...and far southern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262055Z - 262230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for signs of increasing
    thunderstorm coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently formed in far
    southeast/coastal GA in a weak low-level confluence regime, with
    other towering cu also developing in recent visible satellite
    imagery. Around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present downstream into coastal/central SC and far southern NC, with a very moist low-level
    airmass in place. Weak surface winds gradually increase through the
    boundary layer to around 30 kt around 2-3 km AGL based on recent
    VWPs from KCLX/KLTX. This region is on the southern fringe of
    enhanced mid-level westerly winds associated with an upper
    trough/low centered over the Great Lakes. Even so, around 25-35 kt
    of effective bulk shear should foster some organization with any
    convection that can form and be sustained. If robust convection can
    develop, a mix of multicells and marginal supercells, with an
    associated hail/damaging wind threat, appear possible.
    High-resolution guidance shows varying solutions regarding the
    number of thunderstorms which may develop across this area. Trends
    will be monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm
    coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ixVkKbn0CXEJCDYnD3-LFEf99VGMl39FE_WFPzVJIraGvWZhEkmE0jgMiePBxYqmfaHwkPwF= oiVSMG_mb5fKd854Y0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32688195 33518119 34347924 33877852 33097916 32028086
    32688195=20


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