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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1286

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 25, 2022 02:07:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 250206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250206=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-250330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0906 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southeast North Dakota into northwest
    and west-central Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...409...

    Valid 250206Z - 250330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407, 409
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across the remainder of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 407 and 409 continues, with severe winds the
    primary concern. A couple of 75+ mph wind gusts remain possible into
    the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...A more organized MCS has materialized across eastern
    North Dakota over the past few hours, with a history of isolated
    damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Within the ongoing MCS,
    an embedded bowing segment is rapidly translating southeast while
    coinciding with a residual outflow boundary generated by earlier
    storms. Given the presence of up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE (driven by a
    modestly mixed boundary layer beneath 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates), robust surface-based convection should persist for at least
    a few more hours. Despite the presence of 30-45 kts of effective
    bulk shear, the axis of the bowing segment is aligned more parallel
    to the deep-layer shear vectors, and the ambient 700-500 mb wind
    speeds are modest. As such, bowing segments may continue to exert
    brief bursts in intensity, and the best chance of a localized
    significant wind swath would originate from the MCS bowing segment
    along the Cass County ND/Clay County MN line.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4kVs4JOpD3bP9yT9wy2qJp8TPghzy1gQjQrjOLePr77SWJxaVrGfa57erfkZm4yAJ_b8jj4o_= ThfrA8nL61O7nXa66Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46699792 47469718 48229619 48449497 48259332 47759288
    47209296 46669332 46189379 45909453 45699525 45729591
    46009671 46699792=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 20:24:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 262024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262024=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern Wyoming...far southeastern
    Montana...far western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262024Z - 262300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
    northern High Plains. A few supercells may develop, supporting a
    risk for large hail (including an instance or two of 2+ inch
    stones), as well as a couple of severe gusts. Convective trends are
    being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
    later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery and satellite data suggests
    that convection is gradually deepening along the higher terrain of
    the Rockies. Though convection has yet to move off of the higher
    terrain, stronger forcing should begin to overspread the northern
    High Plains in the next few hours in association with an approaching
    500 mb vort max over northwestern UT. While low-level moisture is
    not overly rich, 8+ C/km lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb is
    supporting 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE, which is adequate for supercell development given the presence of 40+ kt effective bulk shear values
    (driven by straight, long hodographs). The deep-layer speed shear
    may support sufficient enough hail growth for stones to exceed 1
    inches in diameter, with a couple of 2+ inch diameter stones
    possible. A few severe gusts may also occur with the heavier
    supercell precipitation cores given the steep low-level lapse rates.

    It is unclear exactly when a significant uptick in convective
    intensity and relatively robust supercell development will occur. It
    is possible that such development may not occur for at least a few
    more hours. Nonetheless, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
    likely be needed at some point this afternoon or evening and
    convective trends are being monitored closely for more precise
    timing of the watch issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WoAe9Ms-hYfCsgrdThX8fEDYmabJNvlJYnAFOMejV9FacUJ-Uzhv2CuHyk_XZSIs2ouiRizE= FXhKYGfv288z_hVn5g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43391037 44540896 45490731 45640592 45640456 45070351
    44510309 44180317 43120370 42680452 42390547 42400736
    42570816 43391037=20


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