ACUS11 KWNS 242238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242237=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Far Southern Montana...North-central and Northeast
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242237Z - 250100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across
parts of north-central and northeast Wyoming into far southern
Montana. But no weather watch is expected because the threat should
remain marginal.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough will continue to approach the
northern High Plains this evening. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout the central and
northern Rockies. The strongest instability is currently located
across northern Wyoming, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the
500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition RAP forecast soundings have
mid-level lapse rates at 8.0 C/km, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35
to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat this evening. Hail and marginally severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8SeO5ANgcSAFH_CB0BNYFnIl4aXm50HH8tXR2Z5e_H8RTa9cCk1wfX0IEDCUz1a8_qTINeb6u= SxkZbEl46CUGSDQeps$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44820517 44900592 44980646 45180714 45430809 45460906
45270950 44830975 44500965 44130915 44130825 44090751
43500692 43210618 43110554 43140497 43350435 43950405
44530435 44820517=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 261800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261759=20
GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia into the
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261759Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase through the
afternoon, with a few damaging gusts/instance of large hail the
primary concerns. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating of a moist boundary layer is
supporting surface temperatures to exceed 90 F amid 70+ F dewpoints.
Mixing of this boundary layer is resulting in 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates, over 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE/MUCAPE, and the development of a
cumulus field. Convective initiation is already evident along the
Thomas/Brooks County, GA border, and more storms are expected to
initiate and intensify through the afternoon. The stronger buoyancy
will support updrafts intense enough to foster brief damaging
gust/large hail potential. However, weak winds throughout the
troposphere will limit vertical shear and associated storm
organization potential. Therefore, mainly pulse cellular convection
is expected, and a few multicellular clusters may form. A few
instances of damaging gusts/large hail may accompany the stronger
storms. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a
WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-b6pZNp3pRcI4XKYsRcyCCCZZnG_VyHNTj628KbxQ9L96CYxYG9zZIGaatxYzgGBKyNCymAxs= AxwM3Maal2_E1xuRJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30278350 30198385 30278416 30708430 31488425 32418396
33358346 33938298 33828237 33228183 32338152 31538160
30918194 30668249 30278350=20


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