• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1281

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 24, 2022 22:03:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 242203
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242202=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1281
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242202Z - 250030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to develop across
    parts of the central High Plains this evening. But the threat should
    be marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
    over the central and northern Rockies, with mid-level moisture
    concentrated across the central and northern High Plains ahead of
    the trough. At the surface, the western edge of a moist airmass is
    located from northwest Kansas extending northward into western
    Nebraska and western South Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms have
    developed ahead of the trough in parts of the central High Plains.
    This convection will gradually expand in coverage, moving eastward
    into the stronger instability. The RAP suggests that MLCAPE is
    generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across much of western
    Nebraska and northwest Kansas. This combined with 0-6 km shear near
    35 kt, evident on the WSR-88D VWP from North Platte, should be
    enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and a few marginally
    severe gusts will be possible this evening.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7naZjJTkH90gZDOBPW8TJLvtd1yGb5nATZbmTk2BdlaUBOks2mLGGhBuR0Nm3Kb_1_l8ZPuHA= olMoB33tgxezO9MquQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41740034 41170005 40259999 39000027 38440066 38220118
    38270180 38510224 38950237 39560224 40450219 41090251
    41510317 41890351 42320356 42640335 42880278 42840203
    42500109 41740034=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 16:19:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 261619
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261618=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-261715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1281
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1118 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261618Z - 261715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging gust may accompany a line of storms before they
    move offshore. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The remnants of an MCS continue to propagate
    southeastward amid a weakly forced/sheared airmass. A slowly
    diminishing cold pool is the forward propagation mechanism. However,
    the airmass ahead of the storms has warmed to over 90F amid upper
    70s F dewpoints, contributing to a very buoyant boundary layer (i.e.
    4000+ j/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE). As such, some of the cells along the
    leading line of the diminishing MCS may pulse in intensity to the
    point of supporting water loaded downdrafts that may produce a
    damaging gust or two. Since the threat for severe gusts should be
    very isolated, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9eDBRqljcDBo0S7eKls4mlKoaR_acCPe5aFvBwYicFamk-ueKJxfiWJyoeIIfzZZWJePrTpbb= uDQI9f-HTtyvE2-j9A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30379193 30769122 30919066 30728988 30318934 29918931
    29618949 29358998 29369073 29699137 30119187 30379193=20


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