ACUS11 KWNS 242151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242150=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-242315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far northern Wisconsin into the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242150Z - 242315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
storm cores. The severe threat is expected to remain sparse and a WW
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development has been underway
for the past few hours along a surface-850 mb moisture axis,
contributing up to 2500 J/kg SBCAPE and aiding storm initiation in
tandem with strong surface heating. Given the presence of near 8
C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis), efficient
evaporative cooling may support a couple of strong to damaging gusts
(as supported by an observed 55 mph wind gust along the WI/MI border
in the past hour) through the remainder of the afternoon.
Tropospheric wind fields (and associated shear) are weak across the
region, suggesting that the severe threat should remain quite
limited, and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 06/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65oA5w6uK55FxpdAKCf8US4ItmVtxx0SaKSWvx7sUDD4ERWmcc1Xe5P_2NTxaY6JlA-kT810V= wc7ZypnlZoy6Y6Koj8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON 46319115 46659026 46798911 46828807 46568766 46288773
46008800 45888869 45878960 45879035 45929094 46319115=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 261338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261337=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern PA into far southern
NY and NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261337Z - 261500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for hail and gusty winds winds will likely remain
quite isolated in the short term. Watch issuance is not anticipated
in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Widely spaced thunderstorms have developed this morning
from parts of northern into eastern PA as modest large-scale ascent
preceding an upper trough over the Great Lakes begins to overspread
the Mid-Atlantic region. The airmass across this region is only
weakly unstable at the moment, with MUCAPE generally 1250 J/kg or
less. Still, some updraft organization may occur as stronger
mid-level southwesterly winds associated with the upper trough
develop eastward. Hail approaching severe limits may be possible
with the more robust cores given modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates, along with occasional strong/gusty winds. Watch issuance is
not anticipated in the next hour or so (through 15Z/11 AM EDT) due
to the limited/isolated severe threat in the short term. But, more robust/severe thunderstorm development is still expected later this
afternoon across this region.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Uc-5Ob9vyPdSExPsyBeGeskfxolL02sSOxcStJAhxYKCNDgEjZgHuj-Lz5GBwBONEyocE-PD= 5VwHjXu6b9EyF_U4YI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41087680 41477904 41997988 42277837 42107621 41647487
41257439 40677420 40227457 39717535 39867603 40227608
41087680=20


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