• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1277

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 24, 2022 19:46:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 241945
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241945=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-242115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1277
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

    Areas affected...Central South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241945Z - 242115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible with storms in central/eastern South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. A watch is
    possible for some of these areas this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows deepening cumulus towers from north-central Nebraska into central South Dakota within the surface
    trough. Capping continues to erode along and ahead of the trough
    axis. With mid-level ascent continuing to approach the area, widely
    scattered to scattered storm development is possible this afternoon.
    Effective shear of 30-40 kts across the trough axis will support
    initially discrete storms that will be capable of large hail and
    damaging wind gusts. Storms may take some time to intensify as
    moisture and MLCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg) increase in eastern South
    Dakota. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be considered for
    parts of these areas this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48yHgvcPcW0KaDHvnusn7rhUBi1ZOawHOa4M5QMy7PCWMkncqrNj5NgA5MOHTwBRHG5vdvY1F= 5SmizhyNg8I9tFRR8E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42280202 43580152 45150108 45940007 45739856 44469818
    43559863 42719967 42130031 41960164 41990183 42280202=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 12:15:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 261215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261215=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-261345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1277
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0715 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Northern/Central LA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

    Valid 261215Z - 261345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail continues
    across northern and central LA.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in forward
    propagation with the westernmost portion of the convective line
    extending across northern LA. Storm motion in this part of the line
    is now estimated around 45 kt. These storms continue to reside
    within the theta-e gradient between the mid to upper 70s dewpoints
    across west-central/central LA and the upper 60s dewpoints farther
    north. Outflow continues to push just ahead of these storms,
    although the recent southward surge has brought the leading edge of
    the higher reflectivity close to this boundary. Given these trends,
    the threat for damaging gusts has locally increased, particularly in
    the SHV vicinity. Additionally, the threat for damaging gusts will
    likely persist into more of central LA, and the watch has been
    extended in area to address that potential.

    ..Mosier.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mgRorj3pT0E_wWJcCOtGj19pRyYy3MnMvbvUPbXqnkRTeTaEhp3yUfNxlWHMwMywOK8jn4OJ= IrG_kxsI2q8FUz6WxU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32879397 32669161 31739119 31639167 31669337 32069397
    32879397=20


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