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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1275

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 24, 2022 18:16:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 241816
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241816=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-242015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1275
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Dakota into
    northwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241816Z - 242015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Initially supercellular storms will be capable of all
    severe hazards, including tornadoes. A transition to a more linear
    mode will occur with time and severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) will
    be possible. A watch is likely within the next 1-1.5 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is evident within northeast North
    Dakota and, to a lesser extent, in south-central North Dakota on
    visible satellite. These observational trends and model trends
    within the HRRR would suggest that storm initiation is possible
    within the next 1-2 hours. Initial storms will likely be
    supercellular and capable of large/very-large hail, damaging winds,
    and a tornado or two. Low-level hodographs are not particularly
    large and the low-level jet will not increase until storm mode will
    be more linear. Nevertheless, an area of northeast North Dakota with
    more backed surface flow would be the likely area of greater tornado
    risk. The 18Z observed BIS sounding sampled mid-level lapse rates
    near 9 C/km with a a long, straight hodograph. Storms will likely
    intensify quickly as they develop. With time, storms are expected to
    grow upscale into one or more linear segments which would mean a
    greater wind damage threat (including potential for 75+ mph winds).
    A watch will likely be needed within the next 1-1.5 hours.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7JFhTI5sgMZOYSL_MUn5OfCwZVKJoZFi_qlkEv9R53eskZlNAEmyGB6qk1UQw5AFIxN7fvmcX= oueb-qHy2_wlWjQC7Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46820098 47899968 48949777 48659664 48099625 47429645
    46069865 45850018 46030093 46330099 46820098=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 06:27:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 260627
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260626=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1275
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Far Northern
    LA...Extreme Northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

    Valid 260626Z - 260800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to persist for at least
    the next few hours across the region, and an additional watch will
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows ongoing thunderstorm in a
    northwest to southeast corridor across southern AR, just to the
    north of a slow-moving outflow boundary. Limited low-level
    convergence along this boundary, coupled with ample low-level
    moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, is expected to support
    strong to severe thunderstorms throughout the morning. Some
    additional development appears possible back farther west into
    southeast OK.=20

    Expectation is for this corridor of storms to slowly sag southward
    over time. Given the strong buoyancy and shear in place, occasional
    updrafts will likely be strong enough to produce large hail. A few
    stronger downdrafts capable of penetrating the shallow low-level
    stability are possible as well. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385 will
    expire at 07Z, and an additional watch will be needed over the
    region, with some southward extension, to cover the continuing
    severe-storm threat.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7pnCeyLe89PDYQxqVTvdQNsoN5X9SyNxNkVjIjwkBSqOVqPRaskr9oPeD7BXkOkdCSmD3y4wC= xjJ0ec02ZcCRJYnyCA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33469499 34069558 34839569 34859469 33899157 32849139
    32889356 33469499=20


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