ACUS11 KWNS 241457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241457=20
MNZ000-241600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...North-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241457Z - 241600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...As temperatures warm ahead of small storm complex, wind
gust potential may increase in a limited area. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of likely elevated storms continues
east into north-central Minnesota. Effective shear and moisture
decrease to the east. However, based on the 12Z INL sounding,
temperatures that near the mid 80s F would support near-surface
based updrafts. With temperatures just ahead of the southern flank
of this cluster now in the low 80s, there may be a brief window
where damaging wind gusts potential could increase. Marginally
severe hail would be possible with initial updraft pulses, but the
observed 7 C/km lapse rates and weak shear should keep that activity
isolated. Given downstream conditions are not expected to
appreciably improve, a watch is not likely this morning.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HdyXtwugeu65o9o-H7dLOHPo9sm4auUImknfc1jqc-iFKH61563HnIIWHPV-AAtdSDskrH7R= gvtZuhavB4BMGKeH5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48259551 48419534 48259418 47899400 47669413 47669494
47729556 47909587 48259551=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 260554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260554=20
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-260730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Middle/Eastern TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

Valid 260554Z - 260730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
continues.

SUMMARY...Local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 as the
threat for damaging gusts expands into more of eastern TN.

DISCUSSION...An organized convective line continues to push
southeastward across northern middle and eastern TN, with recent
storm motion estimated at 37 kt. Strong to severe gusts have been
reported within this line over the past hour, including a 51 kt gust
at EKQ. The downstream air mass is characterized by ample low-level
moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40 to 50 kt of 0-6 km
bulk shear. Bulk shear vector is also north-northwesterly, which is
orientated favorably for downstream propagation of the east-west
line. This factors suggest some severe potential will continue with
this line for at least the next hour or two. Current storm motion
takes the ongoing line to the edge of the watch around 0630Z, and
local extension may be warranted to cover the anticipated severe
threat into more of eastern TN.

..Mosier.. 06/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5UVTBNOrva723tZZ5gAaRjjaF2cV2uydzdMCogRhRTrMShDyeUiBBCELUWSanMjAEOSbq9gIe= s3GGaBk20BHYOBjZd8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36858672 36688458 36948320 35878324 35168449 35398601
35768697 36858672=20


=3D =3D =3D
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