• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1266

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 23, 2022 19:57:55
    ACUS11 KWNS 231957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231957=20
    COZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-232130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1266
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Utah into far western Colorado.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231957Z - 232130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this
    afternoon/evening across eastern Utah and far western Colorado.

    DISCUSSION...A few stronger cells have developed off the higher
    terrain in central Utah and eastern Utah/western Colorado. Dewpoints
    in the 50s with temperatures in the 80s have yielded MLCAPE around
    500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear is relatively weak
    (~25 knots per ICX VWP), but storms have shown at least some
    organization with a sustained supercell moving across Wayne county.
    The environment is similar across much of eastern Utah into western
    Colorado so additional more organized updrafts are possible. The
    primary hazard will likely be damaging winds given the deeply mixed
    sub-cloud layer, but the limited instability/shear should keep the
    overall severe wind threat isolated.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_iy5xiPD3paLKkKBQ-XElUXnwYijMag76MAKFxWg1rIcCLRSkyZvd_3OdOCs-M99se7o7b7R_= O6MpkYWzUW9FkabJVE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

    LAT...LON 37251264 39631124 40351026 40330849 38130842 36950949
    36681042 36801177 37251264=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 25, 2023 23:15:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 252315
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252315=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-260045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1266
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0615 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Arkansas into portions of northeastern
    Louisiana and western Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...383...

    Valid 252315Z - 260045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378, 383
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms will continue to pose a
    risk for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. A
    downstream weather watch is also likely needed this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of central AR, a well developed cluster
    of severe storms has produced several reports of very large hail and
    damaging wind gusts over the last several hours. A transition in
    storm mode is underway with the previous supercells growing upscale
    into a more linear arrangement. Observational trends suggest this
    will continue with storms likely to maintain intensity as they move southeastward this evening. Within a favorable environment of large
    buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, significant damaging winds
    (some 75+ mph) are possible along with very large hail. The highest
    confidence in significant severe wind/hail potential over the next
    couple of hours will remain with the storm cluster near and south of
    the Little Rock Metro.

    Downstream into the ArkLaMiss region, the air mass remains quite
    favorable for severe storms. As convection across AR continues to
    move south, additional upscale growth is possible this evening. With
    similarly large buoyancy and sufficient vertical shear for storm
    organization, the severe risk is likely to increase this evening.
    Damaging winds and hail appear likely, and a downstream weather
    watch is probable soon.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5W7u898U0BzvbCFFBrQBb9FwibKmb--8C6ZK4n365lyEdW83Jf7pYz32h8C89nRUyFDGzKUte= Umf_iXZRmMPgyH0V0E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 35529208 34679050 34118978 33848937 33518920 33088934
    32578980 32179074 32229155 32379206 32729251 33509323
    34849380 35349343 35529208=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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