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ACUS11 KWNS 060209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060209=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-060345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

Areas affected...Northern and Central Illinois...far southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 060209Z - 060345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be considered for
portions of northern and central Illinois. Strong wind fields will
support damaging wind gusts despite weaker thermodynamics.

DISCUSSION...Strengthening 850 mb winds have been observed by
regional VWP with winds reaching 50-60 kts. Cooling aloft and modest
moisture transport into Illinois and southern Wisconsin should
support areas of increasing, but weak, buoyancy this evening. As
convection moves eastward out of Iowa, the trend in storm mode is
expected to become more linear. At present, a line of storms nearing
the Mississippi River in southeastern Iowa has shown an increase in
linear organization and has had measured severe winds within the
last hour. While there are some uncertainties as to how organized
this activity remains, even modest buoyancy is expected to support
severe wind gust potential given the strong wind fields just a above
the surface. Brief tornadoes within QLCS circulations are possible,
but are not expected to be the main threat. A severe thunderstorm
watch is possible later this evening.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 03/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r4SUkhtxWtkxSUt-VyTQRGruRU8IHrDl5sd_jtgP6JVNRDCPP4In04TJLJM78AwG7z8uOTOE$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 40999030 41969028 42639043 42738982 42678901 42318845
40478849 39678900 39338958 39399022 39569072 39969067
40999030=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 270744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270743=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-270845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...much of Missouri and adjacent portions of southeast Iowa...western Illinois...northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270743Z - 270845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms overspreading the region will
continue pose a risk for at least localized severe wind gusts
through the night. While the sporadic nature of this threat
probably will preclude a severe weather watch issuance, trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An intense, cyclonic mid-level jet (110+ kt around 500
mb) is forecast to continue rapidly propagating east-northeastward
into and through the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Strengthening
subsidence to the south and southwest of the speed maximum is now
suppressing deep convective development to the southwest (roughly)
of the Missouri/Kansas/Arkansas border vicinity. Pre-cold frontal
lightning producing convection is being maintained on the leading
edge of the large-scale mid-level ascent/cold core, which is
forecast to rapidly spread across much Missouri and parts of
adjacent Iowa and Arkansas into western Illinois through 11-12Z.

While the boundary-layer across much of this region remains only
modestly moist (rising through the 50s F), beneath a northeastward
advecting warm layer around the 700 mb level, models do indicate
some further moistening within the warm sector of the deep occluding
cyclone is possible prior to the arrival of the cold front. Based
on latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, strong forcing through
the capping layer may continue to yield very weak boundary-layer destabilization just ahead of the convective line. It is not clear
that this will be able to support much in the way of substantive intensification from what is ongoing now. However, given the
intense nature of the mean lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields within
which the convection is embedded (greater than 60 kt in the lowest
60 km AGL), the heavier precipitation cores probably will continue
to aid the downward transfer of potentially damaging gusts to the
surface.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 02/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Woxs76MxkmnnPEeP5m_McdFfI2CYw8TUC03xzchZJAFEeDU7BHYwRcG3E9l0u91H6kngky-Z= sk_KBDeXT7_zjZyVd8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...
EAX...

LAT...LON 36739322 37549367 39789422 40689387 41139212 39478992
37118925 36429079 36739322=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 080038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080037=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30...

Valid 080037Z - 080200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW30. Isolated tornado
potential near the OK/KS border.

DISCUSSION...Storm activity is ongoing across northern Oklahoma into
southern Kansas along an eastward advancing dry line and warm front
draped across southern Kansas. Two supercells located along surface
warm front have shown better organization as they move eastward into
dew points in the upper 50s. A narrow corridor near the warm front
may support risk of an isolated tornado before storms cross to the
cool side of the boundary, given enhanced vorticity along the front.
Further west along the dry line, storms will likely cluster and
attempt to grow up scale as the cold front moves east eventually
overtaking the dry line. The main threats will likely be wind and
hail with the linear storm modes.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qf6DjWD_NfhgrWJanllg5Zqpr99iXCqb7_DE0FPTFAXrq4qLEA628ZYFZc0QWic8bVBobz5v= v6z1n5exHSUUwlrD2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36509635 36609708 36809729 37279729 37479667 37549570
37409524 37239513 37029512 36819520 36639544 36569587
36509635=20


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