ACUS11 KWNS 230036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230036=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Central/Southern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...404...

Valid 230036Z - 230130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402, 404
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts will remain possible with any
more organized storm clusters. Decreasingly favorable thermodynamics
will preclude additional watches this evening.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures ahead of a group of storm clusters in West
Virginia continue to cool into the low 80s this evening. While
established cold pools may promote some risk of a few additional
damaging gusts, this threat should become more localized with time.
Additional watches are not expected this evening.

..Wendt.. 06/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-hgc1ByN0lXdcXhAFg36_FMZYWg39GrZUtMWzYizDOtarXOtI_-sBN2nR4nyhCkXkAQarIY_i= CyiOPUHYSDWm43qgPk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 37868244 38438212 38578174 38768126 39098050 39148030
39117990 38927964 38557975 37238047 36958158 36858220
37048250 37868244=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 252146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252145=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arkansas...southern
Missouri...into western Tennessee/Kentucky.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 252145Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development and ongoing supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely this
evening. A Watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the mid to lower MS Valley,
broad-scale ascent from an approaching upper-low and speed max was
beginning to impinge on the northern fringes of a broad warm sector.
Late afternoon visible satellite imagery showed cumulus towers
slowly deepening along a wind shift boundary demarcating the
northern extent of the warm and very moist air mass. Mid to upper
70s dewpoints and 90s F surface temperatures beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates are supporting large buoyancy with 3500-4500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Atop the unstable boundary layer, 40-50 kt of effective
shear observed from area VADs will support storm reorganization into
supercells and linear clusters. With substantial instability and
vertical shear, large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be likely with severe storms that form this afternoon/evening.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kQPo3WtdOR3rdooCUfRHGArAWl9q_iEx6Bf3eghgGFbCcJsZ4Y4wG_A2uuw_airSU2OJ0V7X= aEZ-9rbBjHe7p_ayyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 36199117 36619018 37108876 37258825 37028688 35768769
35068892 34709022 34449100 34489123 36199117=20


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