ACUS11 KWNS 222235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222235=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northern and central West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...

Valid 222235Z - 230000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for wind damage will continue into
northern/central West Virginia over the next few hours. The main
threat will be with a cluster near the southeastern
Ohio/northwestern West Virginia border.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster has moved into central West Virginia,
though it has been weakening during the last 15 minutes. This
particular activity has cooled the airmass slightly per recent
observations. However, the cooling has not been prohibitive for
addition convection in southeast Ohio to increase in intensity over
the same time frame. The activity in southeastern Ohio will pose the
greatest risk for damaging wind gusts at it moves southeastward.
While effective shear is only around 20 kts currently, a modest
increase may occur this evening as the upper-level ridge retrogrades
farther west. So long as thermodynamics remain favorable, clusters
of storms could become marginally more organized.

..Wendt.. 06/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MNJT-J8TYpDbPoNM5I90PH95-biO2pt9JMFSbjHXfYEqPaBT5R5P_soHhQJ7ZfpNNVm676pv= TvFFWqiDeayKQDC5ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 39228274 39758197 39648114 39057996 38557985 38218000
38078090 38238166 38458194 38638223 39228274=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 252049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252048=20
MIZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...382...

Valid 252048Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375, 382
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind threat should continue as
thunderstorms move east-northeastward this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Compared to locations farther south into the OH Valley, instability is weaker with northward extent into Lower MI. Still,
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is present based on latest
mesoanalysis estimates. This region also remains mostly displaced to
the north of stronger mid-level flow associated with a westerly jet
across the Midwest/OH Valley. But, around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
shear should continue to support modest organization with an arcing
band of convection moving east-northeastward over the next couple of
hours. Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity
in the short term given the linear mode currently observed. Some
hail may also occur with stronger embedded cores.

..Gleason.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!79Pg6OMcCsTwfxbmWf1jl-p0n2q9gu_x-oPyR9hxVB8-NJEDTcRiNcE2iMZJq07sYQ1ujVyFu= 0z6ELeZnCkmlLloOiw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43918647 44618612 44718452 44008278 42738273 42198484
43298583 43918647=20


=3D =3D =3D
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