ACUS11 KWNS 222217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222216=20
PAZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-230015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Central and Southern Pennsylvania...Eastern West Virginia...Western Maryland...Central and Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...401...

Valid 222216Z - 230015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400, 401
continues.

SUMMARY...Convective coverage is expected to increase across parts
of WW 400 and WW 401 over the next couple of hours. In response, the
potential for wind damage and hail will likely continue.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery from Pennsylvania southward
into Virginia show a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The first is in north-central Pennsylvania and the second in
southwestern Pennsylvania. These two clusters are located along and
near an axis of strong instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. As the two clusters approach each
other, linear development will be possible. This convection will
move southeastward into the northwestern part of WW 400. Wind damage
and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.

Further south into northern Virginia, a third cluster is ongoing
near an axis of weak instability. The airmass immediately to the
south appears to have been undisturbed. This will make a severe
threat possible early this evening. The RAP has 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range across parts of south-central Virginia,
suggesting a wind-damage threat will be possible with the stronger
multicells within the cluster.

..Broyles.. 06/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44SXz9LnQST9SfsYpuMVHY3DNJZasaC5t29vt4bNH1Oo2fQzmmKn0TbWCXoz2UGQhxCRcntjG= IzCRiVffdCfgXuy9mg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 41467733 41557796 41417839 41067864 40407886 39917926
39487933 39127923 38247913 37967908 37017891 36757851
36697825 36717763 36907728 37367692 38057689 39127689
41077693 41467733=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 252048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252047=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma into northern and
central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

Valid 252047Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 378, with large hail remaining the primary threat in the short
term. A severe wind threat may materialize if an MCS can develop.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storm clusters and transient supercells
have been progressing across northern AR over the past couple of
hours. Though no severe hail reports have been received so far, MRMS
mosaic radar data depicts MESH streaks with a history of hailstones
potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter. 20Z mesoanalysis shows
MLCAPE up to 4500 J/kg preceding the ongoing storms, suggesting that
the more discrete/semi-discrete updrafts should remain capable of
producing severe hail, with some stones potentially exceeding 2
inches in diameter. Should the ongoing storms effectively congeal a
strong, deep cold pool, then a southeastward propagating bow echo
with severe winds could still occur. Convective initiation farther
west of the ongoing storms is uncertain in the short term. However,
any storms that can develop and mature may produce very large hail
given a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and deep-layer
shear.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88YhKqOk0PnnZwE5J53-k2pGhopPhgtN7izLUtyE-Nm99lH551vcJYFZ69q7V30Q2essFX7qJ= VLyzWMI50DXsbpb9Xw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 36079567 36119331 36029186 35409130 34569119 34159154
34309345 34599498 34969588 36079567=20


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