• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1257

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 22, 2022 20:50:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 222050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222050=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1257
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

    Areas affected...southwest Ohio...northern Kentucky ,and southeast
    Indiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

    Valid 222050Z - 222215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A risk for damaging winds will continue this
    afternoon/evening across WW403 with clustering thunderstorms.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a linear
    cluster of thunderstorms located roughly along the Ohio River into
    southwestern OH. Several reports of wind damage and measured 48 kt
    ILN over the last 30 min suggest these storms remain capable of
    strong downburst winds. 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-25 kt of
    effective shear will continue to support numerous strong updrafts
    and some organization into this evening. Clustering of these strong
    updrafts should favor strong cold pool development as storms move
    slowly to the south and east. The potential for strong water loaded
    downdrafts and cold pool coalescence suggests the threat for
    damaging outflow winds should continue into portions of far
    southwestern OH and northern KY this evening. The southernmost
    extent of the severe risk remains somewhat uncertain owing to
    potential nocturnal stabilization and decreasing flow aloft farther
    south.=20

    Some redevelopment of additional thunderstorms along the cold front
    farther north across southern IN may also occur into this evening.
    However, only isolated severe weather may be possible given residual
    buoyancy and convective overturning ahead of any storms.

    ..Lyons.. 06/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_KJ8N4TdU9wlYa01XVhx0FRGTXdywxrRT4Y1dC-VGe7j7-65akzOPf-XfSxKpnmVMJSJ6DHFz= -7zaDWj3nH0U2n0Smw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 39108304 38788326 38478369 38088421 37818496 37568568
    37568614 37698628 38028649 38288655 38678652 38928631
    39288552 39848376 39858339 39468287 39108304=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 25, 2023 19:47:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 251947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251946=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-252115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1257
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern IN...far northern KY...western/central OH...and far southeastern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 251946Z - 252115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for tornadoes, very large hail, and
    significant damaging winds will increase this afternoon as
    thunderstorms spread eastward. Tornado Watch issuance will be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed this afternoon
    across IN, moving eastward towards western OH and vicinity. Very
    large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter has been observed with the more
    robust supercells, and the threat for very large hail should
    continue in the short term. The airmass across western OH is still destabilizing in the wake of earlier convection across KY. But with
    strong heating now occurring, along with a moist low-level airmass
    already in place, sufficient instability to maintain severe
    thunderstorms will likely exist into at least central OH. The
    tornado threat should gradually increase over the next few hours as
    a 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreads this region, and
    as low-level hodographs lengthen and become more curved.
    Severe/damaging winds, with some potential for significant (75+ mph)
    gusts, will also be a concern as supercells merge into clusters and
    develop eastward in a strong deep-layer shear environment. Tornado
    Watch issuance will be needed soon to address this increasing severe
    threat.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__J_V5KYD5qlE9uikdHI0ofDhdK-42BALRsmLymuxPCwoUHf7HEjPEUGeJGmauDP0aNvYWp06= w0K1eKL8dL7N9l9enc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

    LAT...LON 39088529 40018477 41948420 41938343 41478259 39968256
    38928300 38618348 38708505 39088529=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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