ACUS11 KWNS 221716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221716=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221716Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of damaging gusts and
marginal hail will increase across central PA between 18-20Z. Watch
issuance is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As filtered diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) continues beneath modest midlevel lapse
rates (per PIT/IAD 12Z soundings), moderate to strong surface-based
buoyancy will develop during the next couple hours over central PA.
While the stronger instability is expected over western PA owing to
deeper boundary-layer mixing amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints,
regional VWP data shows the stronger midlevel flow confined to
east-central PA. As convergence along an approaching cold front from
the east strengthens, convection should increase in
intensity/coverage between 18-20Z. The moderate/strong buoyancy
combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear will support embedded
organized updrafts in a larger precipitation field. Locally damaging
gusts are the main concern with any organized clusters that develop
and track southward through the afternoon, while isolated large hail
and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out owing to modest low-level
hodograph curvature. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iLy2D0tb6fnb6Ftsz2UfFpHUs74wrLfdjRs-FxeJgBPo6dPskaNyo05fHeR6O4I7blu6QI9u= Fvfz8Wwsz3gFA8-xE0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41957666 41667642 40867655 40247674 39767693 39707751
39777810 40147832 40727835 41637818 41937794 42037745
41957666=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 250457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250456=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-250630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...northern Iowa/southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

Valid 250456Z - 250630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across WW 373.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a few clusters of strong storms
moving eastward across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa --
within WW 373. The strongest cell -- crossing Kossuth County Iowa
at this time -- will be capable of producing marginally severe hail
in the short term.

Overall, the storms are slightly elevated, to the north of the warm
front, which should continue to limit potential for damaging winds.=20
However, marginal hail remains possible over the next couple of
hours as the storms move steadily eastward, aided by enhanced
mid-level flow to the southeast of the northeastern South Dakota
upper low.

..Goss.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xeQMRLG9Zz4LmlUJ8liI76J8Oe0oRD8ev7y98m9fPugoB0pr2E3xngZYDg0-Q8tVP-1CemQH= Vm_5kpTuJmx9KZgbfY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 44209447 44209282 43959218 42369200 42089320 42159501
42899476 44209447=20


=3D =3D =3D
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