• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1242

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 21, 2022 01:36:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 210136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210135=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0835 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

    Areas affected...parts of northeastern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

    Valid 210135Z - 210300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A swath of strong to locally severe wind gusts likely will
    persist with a small cluster of storms overspreading northeastern
    South Dakota, including the Aberdeen vicinity by 10-11 PM CDT. It
    is possible, but not yet certain, that a new severe weather watch
    may be needed east-northeast of WW 395.

    DISCUSSION...A compact, but organized cluster of storms with an MCV
    and narrow, strong rear inflow jet (which recently produced a gust
    to 69 kt at Pierre) has accelerated east-northeast of Pierre at up
    to 50 kt. Activity has been supported by strengthening
    east-northeasterly inflow of moist air within a narrow post-cold
    frontal corridor. With the onset of boundary-layer cooling CAPE has
    diminished some, but remains moderately large and the convective
    system still seems likely to maintain considerable strength at least
    another few hours. The associated swath of strong to severe surface
    gusts probably will overspread areas near/southwest through south of
    Aberdeen by 03Z, before approaching the Minnesota/North and South
    Dakota state border vicinity by 04Z.

    ..Kerr.. 06/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-fTg_lhfMXYnHYQ37v-EStAkl1JKrFz7ApcO-Rf5U9XSPiNmseG9WoLd_dyyJl8ayU87nnM-5= xFCoOYEwULTXZv3w5U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45049774 44559880 44879889 44999924 45479859 45989681
    45439676 45049774=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 20:01:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 242001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242001=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of Mid-Missouri Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242001Z - 242200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible in
    southeastern South Dakota. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has developed on the leading edge of a
    shortwave perturbation in south-central South Dakota. This activity
    is currently within modest moisture (dewpoints around 60 F), but
    will continue to encounter greater moisture/buoyancy (near 70 F
    dewpoints) as it moves toward the IA/MN/SD border region. Long,
    straight hodographs will favor at least marginal supercell
    structures. Temperatures aloft are cold enough to support marginally
    severe hail (primarily 1-1.5 inches). Isolated damaging winds may
    also occur. A watch is not expected this afternoon as coverage
    should remain quite limited. It is possible, however, that some
    intensification will occur later in the afternoon when storms
    encounter a better environment.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zgryVbS4UcPOuKcU8JuzZvMqE9nemoSd1uLtfta8XXU6o95dBgz3i8lSsJL4KpqN5gQGXOEI= d2K2_54vf06u87knKg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42819941 43379958 43969901 44309730 43949624 43089613
    42539640 42389676 42819941=20


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