ACUS11 KWNS 202215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202214=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Areas affected...parts of northwestern Nebraska through central
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...395...

Valid 202214Z - 202345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393, 395
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify and organize
further while spreading across the central South Dakota Missouri
Valley, including the Pierre vicinity, through 7-9 PM CDT. This may
be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to locally severe
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been generally maintaining strength
as they begin to spread northeast of the Black Hills and Nebraska
Panhandle vicinity. Activity is accompanying forcing for ascent
with a short wave impulse, and an associated mid-level speed maximum
(including 30-50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer) which is forecast to
nose north-northeastward (near/northwest of Valentine NE) through
much of central South Dakota by 01-02Z.

Although low/mid-level lapse rates within the more moist
post-frontal regime are not particularly steep, profiles are
supportive of moderate CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg. Given
the background environment flow and shear, northerly to
northeasterly inflow of this air probably will support further
thunderstorm intensification and organization during the next few
hours. As this occurs, the risk for strong convective gusts,
including a few exceeding severe limits, seems likely to increase.

..Kerr.. 06/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8kgXX3lelTdawhxps3cDXNbhbW4MnzYCwd7yGwnv1Yd8Hv8NRnjLcmQqJbNmK7COqV_ofn0s-= rfw6CDDMhdd_h0RwH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43800173 44860061 45589891 43479973 42200228 43800173=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 240743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240743=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...Far Eastern NE...Far Western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 240743Z - 240945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible across the Mid MO River Valley
when the ongoing convective line moves through late this morning. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed across portions of the
region to cover this threat.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line has shown a trend toward more
cold-pool organization over the last hour or so, with the line now
oriented north-south from about 25 miles north-northwest of ONL to
ODX. The immediate downstream air mass across much of eastern NE has
ample low-level moisture to support the continuation of this
convective line. Current conditions within airmass farther east
across the Mid MO Valley are not as moist as those across much of
eastern NE, with dewpoints in the low 60s in the immediate vicinity
of the MO River. However, low-level moisture advection is expected
to continue as the warm front draped from northwest to southeast
across the region progresses northeastward.=20

This increase in low-level moisture coupled with the persistent
low-level jet will likely lead to a modest increase in buoyancy
ahead of the approaching convective line. Given the current speed of
the ongoing line, it will likely outrun the low-level moisture
return as it moves into IA. However, before this occurs, severe
thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible as the line
moves through the Mid MO River Valley. Consequently, a watch will
likely be needed across portions of the region to cover this threat.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8c7nsUrusszxOnyuK-sy_nFivOLFkpcrNR8f2wa7LXM7cWVGa3J4GgEWAgqlOxI1d5ft5iQ2H= UyWDomloSubOczUq2k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42349699 42879675 42789589 41679544 40539569 40629676
42349699=20


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