• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1234

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 20, 2022 20:26:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 202026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202026=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-202230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1234
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

    Areas affected...northwest NE...southwest SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...

    Valid 202026Z - 202230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for 60-85 mph gusts will probably increase during
    the 230-430pm MDT period as a cluster of storms likely begins
    evolving into a bowing segment.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery shows a cluster of storms
    congealing over the northern part of the NE Panhandle as of 220pm
    MDT. CAPPI imagery from 10 km ARL shows a couple of intense
    discrete updrafts embedded within the cluster.=20=20

    Surface analysis shows weak northerly flow which is maintaining
    relatively moist low levels (dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F to
    the mid 60s near I-90). Objective analysis indicates 1500-2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE from the northern part of the NE Panhandle northeastward into
    central SD. Long hodographs and the approach of increasing forcing
    for ascent/flow associated with the approaching mid-level shortwave
    trough, will probably aid in an acceleration in storm motion to the
    northeast over the next few hours. The strong heating and steep
    low-level lapse rates ahead of the storm activity will likely prime
    the boundary layer for severe gust potential through the late
    afternoon. As the storm mode evolution transitions to a mix of
    embedded cells into a bowing structure, expecting an increase in
    both the intensity and coverage of severe gusts. Peak gusts could
    range 75-85 mph.

    ..Smith.. 06/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Ag0YU2yrncOMqC8GDMjtu8RQo0hZQ5PXuD8Vs21v5zMzPzANvUfIos75-oAkE1zRElUZJIWW= sMVE4ErBnDYC6ds6Xc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42840306 43730171 43670135 43530106 43260101 42340262
    42580292 42840306=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 04:06:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 240406
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240405=20
    TXZ000-240500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1234
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1105 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...western North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367...

    Valid 240405Z - 240500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across WW 367.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the primary convective cluster
    exiting the South Plains/recently expired WW 363 and moving into
    western parts of WW 367. While not yet a well-organized MCS, a cell
    just to the northeast -- west of SPS -- is shifting southeastward
    and may merge with the larger, western cluster over the next hour.=20
    Such upscale growth could increase potential for damaging winds, but
    in the meantime, isolated/locally strong wind gusts and hail remain
    possible, as storms shift into the zone of greatest remaining
    instability.

    ..Goss.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9iQ-fttDvjyM3Oy3hT2Zv4Z7yor4GQtGmSDNGIzwXWGRTZyFPTH7KGytdwLKpbP1DmLtQzWWP= X6GfQMceY-Hed579UA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33469995 34069991 33759745 32209755 32689997 33469995=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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