ACUS11 KWNS 202026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202026=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-202230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Areas affected...northwest NE...southwest SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...
Valid 202026Z - 202230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for 60-85 mph gusts will probably increase during
the 230-430pm MDT period as a cluster of storms likely begins
evolving into a bowing segment.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery shows a cluster of storms
congealing over the northern part of the NE Panhandle as of 220pm
MDT. CAPPI imagery from 10 km ARL shows a couple of intense
discrete updrafts embedded within the cluster.=20=20
Surface analysis shows weak northerly flow which is maintaining
relatively moist low levels (dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F to
the mid 60s near I-90). Objective analysis indicates 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE from the northern part of the NE Panhandle northeastward into
central SD. Long hodographs and the approach of increasing forcing
for ascent/flow associated with the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough, will probably aid in an acceleration in storm motion to the
northeast over the next few hours. The strong heating and steep
low-level lapse rates ahead of the storm activity will likely prime
the boundary layer for severe gust potential through the late
afternoon. As the storm mode evolution transitions to a mix of
embedded cells into a bowing structure, expecting an increase in
both the intensity and coverage of severe gusts. Peak gusts could
range 75-85 mph.
..Smith.. 06/20/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Ag0YU2yrncOMqC8GDMjtu8RQo0hZQ5PXuD8Vs21v5zMzPzANvUfIos75-oAkE1zRElUZJIWW= sMVE4ErBnDYC6ds6Xc$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 42840306 43730171 43670135 43530106 43260101 42340262
42580292 42840306=20
=3D =3D =3D
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