• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1232

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 20, 2022 18:16:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 201816
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201815=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-202015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1232
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0115 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

    Areas affected...far eastern WY...northern NE Panhandle...southwest
    SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 201815Z - 202015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop/intensify
    over southeast WY and eventually spread northeast into the NE
    Panhandle and southwest SD. Isolated large hail and severe gusts
    are possible with the stronger storms. A severe thunderstorm watch
    is likely over south-central SD extending west/southwest into the
    northern part of the NE Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a couple of
    thunderstorms developing north of Cheyenne, WY with a stratus deck
    south of the Badlands straddling the NE/SD border. Surface analysis
    indicates a surface front extends from northeast CO northeastward
    into Cherry Co., NE and into northeast SD. To the west of the
    boundary, strong heating and relatively moist low levels (surface
    dewpoints 60-65 deg F) are contributing to a destabilizing airmass
    to the northeast of the WY thunderstorm activity.

    As the zone of strongest mid-level forcing for ascent pivots
    northeastward across WY this afternoon in conjunction with a
    shortwave trough, thunderstorms will preferentially develop
    initially over WY. Continued heating and the leading edge of
    appreciable ascent will weaken/erode the remaining cap on a
    localized basis and additional storm development is expected.=20
    Widely scattered storms are forecast by mid-late afternoon with
    several of the stronger storms being capable of a risk for large
    hail and severe gusts. This activity will probably merge to some
    degree and consolidate into a cluster by the early evening with the
    threat for hail/wind correspondingly increasing.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 06/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2xhUGqv5ZCW_27gS1uEk4qqyOfmzKFWIf16uG8G7ZvilxV8JXgc07bhyjlMURGlj0FH8KVdy= K4LdjWpr-uIrDQMxM8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42910463 44410373 44770267 44390132 43450055 42360101
    41760309 41760408 42250460 42910463=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 02:52:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 240252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240252=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-240415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1232
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska and far southern South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 362...365...

    Valid 240252Z - 240415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 362, 365 continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will continue to pose a risk for
    large hail damaging winds and a tornado or two this evening. Greater
    wind damage potential may evolve as storms congeal tonight.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0245 UTC, scattered severe storms were ongoing
    across portions of western NE. Several supercells have been noted
    and should continue to pose a wind and hail risk within the
    favorable CAPE/shear parameter space tonight. Recent HRRR runs show
    additional storm development over northern CO may merge and grow
    upscale with the ongoing NE storms. Damaging wind potential should
    increase as outflow consolidates and surface cold pools strengthen.
    Area VADs have also shown an increase in low-level hodograph size
    this evening, likely in response to the low-level jet and increasing broad-scale ascent. 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 may support a tornado
    or two, especially with the more discrete supercells. Though
    increasing storm interactions lend much lower confidence in the
    tornado potential with time.

    ..Lyons.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46hbW69p6eYdUS0vjkeQs0KfKJWxC3EAf1Do9LC-Ud7joUQvZuGlOVWGBdd2uUQq6R6-ATRwl= geMKwZhnRN7qmyXZxE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40930282 41150358 41670396 41960402 42300398 42530380
    42990294 43330162 43350052 43049979 41979976 41509988
    41110014 40750076 40690135 40690175 40790217 40880252
    40930282=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)