• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1230

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 20, 2022 05:56:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 200556
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200555=20
    NDZ000-200730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1230
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

    Areas affected...South-central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392...

    Valid 200555Z - 200730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind will continue into the
    early overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION...Some intensification of storms has been noted over the
    last hour across south-central ND, though a cell that briefly became
    intense across Grant County, ND has weakened considerably as it
    encountered northward-moving outflow from earlier convection. A
    narrow zone north of the outflow boundary remains favorably warm,
    moist, and unstable, but areas to the south and east of the ongoing
    storms have been stabilized by earlier convection, so the longevity
    of the ongoing severe threat may be somewhat limited. However, in
    the short term, a threat for severe wind and hail will continue,
    most notably with the convection and surging outflow noted near KBIS
    as of 0545Z. At this time, with the severe threat expected to
    gradually diminish with time overnight, new watch issuance after the
    07Z expiration of WW 392 is considered unlikely.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 06/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MymVGuqwFv1ccYhcFHadQAqSeffm_VZBgpG_Pru4Ho6tF2rxpu4pst185wukiwHfZWGc7I34= -cQeKIJJLavugj3CLc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46930135 47200074 47320020 47259982 46759973 46550022
    46420074 46360122 46420126 46930135=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 02:05:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 240205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240205=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-240330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1230
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0905 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...western North Texas and the Big Country

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 240205Z - 240330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are increasing in coverage across eastern portions
    of the Texas South Plains, within southeastern portions of WW 353.=20
    A new/downstream watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an expansion of convection across
    eastern parts of the South Plains region of Texas, with an axis of
    3000 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE that extends eastward to the
    western edge of the DFW Metroplex. Within this zone,
    east-southeasterly surface winds veer rapidly to southwesterly
    through the lowest couple of km. With flow aloft from the
    northwest, the setup overall seems favorable for an
    east-southeastward-moving, upscale-growing cluster of storms. This
    evolution is indicated by several different CAM runs, including the
    ARW-based runs, 4km NAM, and the RRFS. Given potential for hail and
    damaging wind gusts suggested by the background environment, we will
    continue to monitor this area for possible WW issuance downstream of
    WW 353, in the next hour or so.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__PTo0lBmH1FR2CaEYjCAd0F8dllJhgwNxaWmMRLLYiiKiL-EeozOlfSi4J44wSvgUJzUFrzg= p60xW644y7YNEEYsQA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 32570005 33250037 34160006 34299943 34039818 32089717
    31819939 32570005=20


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