ACUS11 KWNS 192253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192252=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Wyoming...southeastern
Montana into northwestern South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...
Valid 192252Z - 200015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
continues.
SUMMARY...One or two supercells appear likely to evolve, mainly in a
narrow corridor roughly from north of Gillette WY toward the
Dickinson ND area, posing primarily a risk for large hail and strong
surface gusts into the 6-8 PM MDT time frame.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently initiated and is
in the process of intensifying to the east of the Big Horn
Mountains. This may have been aided by forcing associated with a
mid-level speed maximum (50+ kt around 500 mb) within a belt of
30-40 kt deep-layer south-southwesterly mean flow emanating from the
eastern Great Basin.
Stronger instability downstream of the convection, and low-level
forcing for ascent, appear mostly focused in a narrow post-cold
frontal corridor extending east-northeastward into southwestern
North Dakota. Within this regime, it appears that 20-25+ kt north-northeasterly inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg) may provide continuing
support for vigorous thunderstorm development during the next few
hours. This probably will include a sustained supercell or two
posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 06/19/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lasjw21qS6UikNaQrmOTDbGRyHVlHzCJI7uB1p251ZVQEOdXfTM23iZcffTs5pqaJuFE2dtn= kSPzaK6GcNvTOZ-7sY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45590492 46570384 45860226 44520525 44720656 45590492=20
=3D =3D =3D
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