• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1228

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 19, 2022 22:53:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 192253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192252=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Wyoming...southeastern
    Montana into northwestern South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...

    Valid 192252Z - 200015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
    continues.

    SUMMARY...One or two supercells appear likely to evolve, mainly in a
    narrow corridor roughly from north of Gillette WY toward the
    Dickinson ND area, posing primarily a risk for large hail and strong
    surface gusts into the 6-8 PM MDT time frame.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently initiated and is
    in the process of intensifying to the east of the Big Horn
    Mountains. This may have been aided by forcing associated with a
    mid-level speed maximum (50+ kt around 500 mb) within a belt of
    30-40 kt deep-layer south-southwesterly mean flow emanating from the
    eastern Great Basin.

    Stronger instability downstream of the convection, and low-level
    forcing for ascent, appear mostly focused in a narrow post-cold
    frontal corridor extending east-northeastward into southwestern
    North Dakota. Within this regime, it appears that 20-25+ kt north-northeasterly inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg) may provide continuing
    support for vigorous thunderstorm development during the next few
    hours. This probably will include a sustained supercell or two
    posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lasjw21qS6UikNaQrmOTDbGRyHVlHzCJI7uB1p251ZVQEOdXfTM23iZcffTs5pqaJuFE2dtn= kSPzaK6GcNvTOZ-7sY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 45590492 46570384 45860226 44520525 44720656 45590492=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 01:48:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 240148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240147=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0847 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle
    vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

    Valid 240147Z - 240315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across southwestern
    Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of
    well-organized/long-lived supercells, with history of producing
    tornadoes, moving across far southwestern Kansas, and into central
    portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle. The storms are moving through
    the instability axis at this time, and as such, have maintained
    intensity over the past hour.

    The organization of the two storms has been aided by a favorably
    sheared environment, with an increase in low-level southerly flow
    noted by recent DDC WSR-88D VWPs, beneath moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies. Expect the storms to maintain intensity over
    the next 1 to 2 hours, and likely move east of the current eastern
    edge of the watch -- possibly requiring inclusion of additional
    counties in southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

    ..Goss.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_7nv6fNJoMP_v0ShGnLzJzCzvIN3MJHUS71cbAlXQuEKwmR8_8qHVLZ5hLazmLm-VXineB1QY= Ub0EfO7k16uJ5dKSCE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 36670198 37040207 38130186 38400099 38379919 36559845
    36539987 36670198=20


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