• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0199

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 06, 2022 01:27:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060126
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060125=20
    MOZ000-ILZ000-060300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0199
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

    Areas affected...southwestern to east-central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 060125Z - 060300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging wind gusts may increase over the
    next couple of hours, which could warrant WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a narrow, frontal band of
    convection moving across western Missouri at this time, with a
    portion of this band extending south of Tornado Watch 28. While an increasingly anafrontal character is expected to evolve with
    southward extent into the Ozark Plateau later this
    evening/overnight, some potential for damaging winds is apparent
    just south of WW 28/29, given ample instability in tandem with very
    strong lower and mid-level winds across the area. This potential is
    hinted at by RUC-based guidance valid over the next few hours. With
    the degree and coverage of wind potential a concern, the need for WW
    issuance likely remains a bit uncertain. We will continue to
    monitor convective evolution, with respect to potential need for a
    severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 03/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sDBxbGdKVIhtb0n0OVwTXgekOUBJQf7GcYjg3u8TCQ3zifT60swDEvTgSkV4RGRI8_hlYIC8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 37609455 38399347 39379154 39379086 38659040 37789155
    37199369 37119460 37609455=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, February 27, 2023 04:58:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 270458
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270458=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0199
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1058 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

    Valid 270458Z - 270700Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk -- mainly in the form of damaging
    winds -- continues across the eastern half of WW 45.

    DISCUSSION...A solid band of intense convection continues moving
    east into southeastern Kansas, ahead of the surface low/front
    progressing across central portions of the state. Given the intense
    deep-layer wind field just ahead of the upper system, and surface
    dewpoints now into the upper 50s, potential for wind gusts to
    penetrate the weakly stable boundary layer and produce damage at the
    surface will continue. A brief/weak tornado will also remain
    possible.

    Over the next 60 to 90 minutes, storms will approach eastern
    portions of the watch. With upper 50s dewpoints evident into
    southwestern Missouri and western Arkansas, at least some severe
    risk extending downstream into this area will likely warrant
    downstream WW issuance.

    ..Goss.. 02/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5HqnHhMGb2FhAXafnwn4RPJTSgrjJYwGcK3z5PLkC6HH5lmn73nuXtmwuftW0pNtHVzcisP9v= QFRCbmWfNjd-FZJu0E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36389550 37059698 38639689 38869591 38909410 38239295
    36029368 36389550=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 07, 2024 20:06:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 072006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072006=20
    TXZ000-072200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0199
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of the TX Big Country/Concho Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072006Z - 072200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase
    later this afternoon. A couple of supercells will be possible, with
    a threat of large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a
    tornado or two.

    DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass is
    ongoing this afternoon, mainly to the south and west of a band of
    elevated convection extending from west-central to north-central TX.
    Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the increasing moisture are
    supporting MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, though poor upper-level
    lapse rates within a cirrus plume are likely limiting the depth of
    stronger buoyancy.=20

    Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear of 60+ kt
    across the region, more than sufficient for organized storms. The
    details of storm initiation and coverage remain somewhat uncertain,
    though continued heating and diminishing MLCINH will likely support
    isolated to widely scattered storm development along a diffuse
    dryline later this afternoon. Some increasing cumulus has also been
    noted near San Angelo, in the vicinity of an apparent outflow
    boundary, where surface winds are backed to more of an easterly
    direction. This boundary could serve as a focus for storm initiation
    as well, or else provide a favored corridor for storms that move in
    from the west late this afternoon or early this evening.=20

    With favorable shear in place, at least a couple supercells could
    develop by late afternoon, posing a threat of hail (potentially in
    the 1.5 to 2 inch diameter range) and localized severe gusts. Some
    tornado threat could also evolve, especially where surface winds are
    backed near the remnant outflow boundary. Watch issuance is possible
    by 4 PM CST if convective initiation appears imminent.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 03/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ggu2rx1vk1-RN3d3FxOePgtf7hM-niZCNxghJExmN3dGDsWtPvuwim4-THdCLlklT99-yW9A= P5LuJz2KWYwLLjERX4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30830180 31650207 32160196 32640146 33250079 33279938
    33209863 32619856 31709881 31159915 30829937 30639963
    30510042 30520102 30720161 30830180=20


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