ACUS11 KWNS 182029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182029=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...western Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

Valid 182029Z - 182200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and strong/possibly damaging
gusts continues across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Radar data from KMSX and KTFX showed scattered
strong/severe thunderstorms, some with a history of large hail, over
western MT as of 2025z. At least one persistent left split supercell
storm was observed earlier, producing one inch hail in Missoula.
Daytime heating has resulted in a corridor of SBCAPE of 500 to
locally 1000 J/kg across the watch area, with some modest additional destabilization expected through the remainder of this afternoon.
Southerly effective shear of 45-60 kts will continue to result in a
favorable environment for a couple of sustained supercells capable
of producing large hail, possibly significant, and damaging gusts
while moving north/northeast towards the international border.

..Bunting.. 06/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NJ4EoUlNdTyhaJu_vDdV17dW4ILzoRXkFSRfIO__P58HXVijBUVHkhIUghdaQxCc4KA2ruuY= fzbSPKajokNcyj4VZA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 48991472 48990944 47780954 46341246 45781334 45491435
45841450 47311475 48131486 48991472=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 231801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231800=20
WYZ000-232000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...Portions of western/central WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231800Z - 232000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and gusty winds will
probably continue into the afternoon. But, watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Some heating has occurred this morning across parts of
southwest into central WY, along and south of a front. Even though
low-level moisture remains somewhat limited, at least low 50s
dewpoints have advanced past the Bighorns and into central WY based
on latest surface observations. The 12Z sounding from RIW showed
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, and daytime heating of the
modestly moist low-level airmass is already contributing to 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Mid/upper-level
flow is expected to strengthen further over this region through the
afternoon, as a shortwave trough advances east-northeastward. 35-40+
kt of deep-layer will foster updraft organization, with an isolated
supercell or two possible. Severe hail should be the main threat
with any discrete convection, while strong/gusty winds may also
occur with any small cluster that can develop. At this point, it
appears that the severe threat will remain fairly isolated across western/central WY this afternoon. Accordingly, watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6b8DSNOs4U5Ll--XO9OOnTqe9lBG7h4wPZUEatETnyIcS3vosqsM92V49eb1Iiz34qdadaaiS= 6IaRfDhwYcNiD7RtP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...

LAT...LON 41481044 42221014 43470859 44320716 44260651 43620637
42440755 41350923 41231008 41481044=20


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