ACUS11 KWNS 182001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182001=20
FLZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...

Valid 182001Z - 182200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging gusts and isolated large hail will
continue spreading southward across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a consolidating
convective outflow boundary surging south-southeastward across parts
of central Florida. While most convection remains on the cool side
of the outflow boundary owing to weak vertical wind shear, new deep
updrafts are being forced along the leading edge gust front. As
these forced updrafts intercept an increasingly unstable
pre-convective environment characterized by steep low-level lapse
rates and middle 70s dewpoints, the risk of damaging gusts up to 65
mph and sporadic large hail up to 1.75 inch diameter will continue
spreading southward this afternoon.

..Weinman.. 06/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Ac9CEz7UAPhXDUc2ZFdiATqSa2A-yOP3gev-dqjwkC5KXWV8VK-R9rt3E360eh7QQrvIYq6o= UftUTp8sOqnRy5OkzY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 26838015 26518043 26488102 26818171 27418192 27608184
27828123 28378077 28318056 27578034 26838015=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 231748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231747=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...central into southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent
northern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 231747Z - 231945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...Although the organized cluster of thunderstorms may now be
in the process of weakening, a swath of strong to severe wind gusts
may persist another couple of hours across and east-southeast of the
Oklahoma City Metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...Based on recent warming of cloud tops and diminishing
lightning flash rates, convection near the MCV is beginning to
weaken. However, initially strong rear inflow focused to the south
of this feature, now spreading across and east-southeast of the
Oklahoma City Metro, may continue to be accompanied by potentially
damaging surface gusts another hour or two before diminishing.

Strongest convection is now focused on the southern flank of the
convection system, within a lingering zone of forced ascent
associated with warm advection. Some risk for hail, and more
localized strong gusts, may persist with this activity, south of the
Oklahoma City Metro into the eastern Oklahoma Red River vicinity
through 19-20Z. However, there are indications that strengthening
mid-level inhibition associated with warming and building ridging
aloft may be in the process of suppressing convection, and it is
possible that new severe weather watch may not be needed.

..Kerr.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5doBDiHh7HYnl3k8X72bNxAQFJq2zlpVAc7Zh3PFkdg0inVca1m9hFlQtb7fo76tAwikC2s-J= 26ufoQ8TMN36ybkAHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35589719 35629647 35309524 34899515 33789560 33869639
34229737 34749758 35229740 35589719=20


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