ACUS11 KWNS 181826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181826=20
FLZ000-182100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southwest and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...

Valid 181826Z - 182100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along
sea breeze boundaries this afternoon. Sporadic large hail and
locally severe gusts are the main concerns. The severe risk will
gradually increase from north to south through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of cumulus continues to deepen along the east
coast sea breeze this afternoon, especially across parts of
Miami-Dade County where initial convective initiation is evident.
Cumulus is also deepening along the Gulf Coast, and isolated
convective development is occurring from Manatee County to Lee
County. As strong diurnal heating over the interior continues to
reinforce the sea breeze circulations, isolated to widely scattered
convective development should continue along these boundaries.
Seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moist/deeply-mixed
boundary layer should support robust pulse updrafts initially
capable of sporadic large hail and possibly strong to locally severe downbursts. With time, congealing cold pools could favor an
increasing risk of damaging gusts with any upscale-grown clusters.

While the severe risk may be rather isolated along the sea breeze
boundaries, the risk will gradually increase as convective outflow
over central Florida spreads southward into the increasingly
unstable airmass.

..Weinman.. 06/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-o1VKGo-MMUEtLfPMj2-fyohilnKUWpVqRi4La-2TbSroCy6UgJNz0sJM18YtmbCPcWU4QfKz= a1BTcp6YXSQLWBf-_8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 25668131 25888179 26718232 27428274 27718223 27228186
26488108 26498070 27018038 27018003 26428003 25948012
25618023 25378030 25178052 25088088 25408117 25668131=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 231522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231521=20
OKZ000-231715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...western and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231521Z - 231715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...It remains unclear how much longer an increasingly
organized cluster of thunderstorms will be maintained, but it could
be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe gusts
into midday, which may persist for a period even after convection
begins to weaken. It is not certain that a severe weather watch is
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A sustained cluster of thunderstorms has become better
organized over the past hour or so, just north of the Interstate 40
corridor across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.=20
This has included the evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric
mesoscale convective vortex and strengthening rear inflow, which
could continue to descend and contribute to strong surface gusts as
it approaches areas near and southwest of the Oklahoma City area
through 16-18Z.=20=20

However, as this occurs, rising mid-level heights and increasing
inhibition are forecast as mid-level ridging builds downstream of
the significant short wave trough progressing northeastward across
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. With forward
(east-southeastward) propagation into an initially drier and less
unstable, though modifying, environment, it remains unclear how much
longer this convection will be maintained, with convection allowing
model output struggling with this activity as well.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5IkiZB54PjnTsj9gy8Zh5KkCPMydN6o1VYZabFqpVgoRzSUTTE5w8lZ0GRkUhK-rqo2lCpr1M= MNkOvvtwr8pdC-cilU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35909922 36029842 36019771 35339683 34669712 34509794
34969917 35219969 35549940 35909922=20


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