ACUS11 KWNS 181735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181735=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-181830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...portions of western Montana...central Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 181735Z - 181830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
expected this afternoon. Scattered severe thunderstorms are
expected, with a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
likely by 1830-20z.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and lightning detection data indicate
initial thunderstorm development is underway near the ID/MT border
west of Dillon, MT. Diurnal heating of a post-frontal air air mass characterized by surface dew points in the upper 40s/lower 50s,
combined with midlevel lapse rates in excess of 7.5 deg C/km, should
result in MLCAPE of 1000 to locally 1500 J/kg this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel southerly flow associated with an upper-level trough
will result in substantial deep-layer shear in excess of 50 kts.
Water vapor imagery reveals an impulse within the southerly flow
over southern/central ID that will lift north this afternoon,
contributing large-scale ascent across the discussion area.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon, including supercell storm structures capable of large
hail and strong/damaging gusts. Significant severe hail (two inches
or greater) is also possible with any sustained supercell storm.

Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is
likely prior to 1830-20z.

..Bunting/Grams.. 06/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6cGtAVf7XeRcN05hDdTHK302fJJnswN72X52p2oO5DCvMht6GrlDZNjk2qokDj50Y5alaWc9Y= XDNJwjmXFylTca4cUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON 49001358 48981198 48961008 48980904 47721081 46601223
45341321 45111417 45261489 46111512 47651482 49001358=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 230641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230641=20
NMZ000-230845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230641Z - 230845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and/or
damaging gusts are possible across northeast New Mexico for the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...Another round of thunderstorms has developed east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, supported by warm-air advection
fostered by a modest southeasterly low-level jet extending into the
region. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place over the region,
suggesting that an additional round of storms could develop in the
wake of the ongoing storms. A slightly stronger corridor of
mid-level flow extends across northern NM and southern CO,
supporting a belt of 50 to 60 kt of effective bulk shear across
northeast NM. The resulting combination of shear and buoyancy will
support robust and supercell structures. Hail will be the primary
risk, but a strong downburst is also possible. Generally isolated
nature of the severe threat will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ch8P-iEDDn9CUSATxEI22k17knqqEMDPw__9hlKqqsdIOvjOCWKbc-8N9v5fRB8scJPpgMic= 5BVWw9TMGcoMWzaxWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36220531 36680493 36800443 36710375 36350351 35700358
35240432 35410529 36220531=20


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