ACUS11 KWNS 181733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181733=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-182030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas...and
northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181733Z - 182030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
potential this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe microbursts and
perhaps marginally severe hail will be possible. Watch issuance is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated cumulus field extending from eastern Oklahoma into parts of
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi -- where diurnal destabilization
is occurring south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped
across the Middle Mississippi Valley. As diurnal heating continues
amid orographic circulations over the higher terrain in eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, isolated to widely scattered
convection should develop during the afternoon hours. The modified
12Z LZK sounding indicates steep midlevel lapse rates atop a
moist/well-mixed boundary layer and minimal inhibition. While
deep-layer flow/shear is weak across the area, isolated strong to
severe downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail will be
possible with the stronger/deeper pulsating updrafts. Currently, the
coverage and organization of strong to severe storms appears too
limited for watch consideration, though trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ancAaZS4Nwlv3qMKWLf6GCc65I4dByfaUsRRAWJuRxp3LnOaL4qCZOyju0EbSKBEwM5FKQQF= 2LTB109XhR7mcTNgFE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33869383 34389528 34699567 35229569 35529526 35529484
35189342 34889258 34699148 34499074 34348987 33908972
33319002 33229123 33549277 33869383=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 230102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230102=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...northeast NM...into the western TX/OK
Panhandles...and far southeastern CO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...

Valid 230102Z - 230200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms across northeastern NM may persist into
western TX/OK Panhandles this evening with a risk for damaging winds
and large hail. A downstream weather watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 0050 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
severe storms, including supercells, ongoing across northeastern NM.
Over the last several hours, these storms have produced several
reports of severe hail. Storm coverage has gradually increased
within broad upslope flow early this evening. The environment
downstream of the ongoing storms remains moderately unstable with
45-55 kt of effective shear from the 00z AMA RAOB. Some lingering
inhibition was noted in the wake of modified outflow air from
earlier convection. As storms track eastward this evening, they may
persist for a few more hours into portions of the western OK/TX
Panhandles with a risk for large hail. Some upscale growth may also
support damaging gusts. However, it remains unclear how much and how
long any organized severe risk may persist given the lingering
inhibition and the loss of diurnal heating. Hi-res guidance remains
split with some solutions supporting a continued severe risk, but
most favoring a gradual downtrend in intensity. While uncertain,
moderate buoyancy/shear may be sufficient for continued storm
maintenance and severe risk for a few hours this evening. Convective
trends will be monitored for a possible weather watch downstream.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_JgQUO7M14IajTzc-tvWsgzVDC231tdKj0P5iIOApZYr78KW-Gx64TPCPpTrgiwJZ9IgfzcI9= rOOuBys28rVKpxqW6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37170326 36940212 36590170 35860161 35240166 34820178
34600257 34740296 34960357 35420431 35750421 36250416
37010386 37170326=20


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