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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1214

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 18, 2022 16:40:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 181640
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181639=20
    FLZ000-181915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1214
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1139 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

    Areas affected...Pars of northern and central Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181639Z - 181915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms capable of
    sporadic large hail and locally damaging downbursts should increase
    through the afternoon hours. Convective trends are being monitored
    for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Along and south of an east-west oriented outflow
    boundary draped across parts of northern Florida, diurnal heating of
    a very moist boundary layer (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) beneath
    seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates (per TBW/JAX 12z soundings)
    will contribute to a strongly unstable airmass. Cumulus is already
    beginning to deepen along and south of the boundary, and convective
    initiation is underway amid minimal MLCINH. As low-level lapse rates
    continue to steepen, updrafts should gradually intensify along
    antecedent outflow and sea breeze boundaries. While weak deep-layer
    flow/shear should primarily yield pulse multicell-type convection,
    the aforementioned thermodynamic environment should support sporadic
    large hail and strong to locally damaging downbursts. With time,
    convective clustering could support an increasing severe wind risk.
    Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VICfDdEIJdazI_715slmaEPo31V8K1zSLEzkIOYN-DSzXdwORauDz1126ABR2nWsd1NUX15R= dCkLfW_8MpHJguilMM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29288329 29488328 29628292 29498161 29168110 28538096
    27718169 27658231 27818291 28228287 28708277 29288329=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 23, 2023 00:09:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 230009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230009=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-230115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1214
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0709 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

    Areas affected...Southwest/Central OK and western North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...

    Valid 230009Z - 230115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk through around sunset should remain focused in
    two general areas, along/south of the Red River into western North
    Texas as well as central Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...Early this evening, the most intense storm/supercell
    potential is expected to remain semi-focused across western North
    Texas near the northwest/southeast-oriented boundary where
    instability is maximized. SPC objective analysis reflects around
    2250-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in this corridor coincident with around 45 kt
    effective shear. Large hail (1.75" diameter in Hardeman Co. TX) has
    been recently reported, and should remain a continued risk through
    at least around sunset.

    Farther north, a cluster of storms will continue to move eastward
    and potentially pose a severe risk into the OKC metro area/I-35
    corridor, mostly in the form of damaging winds/marginally severe
    hail.

    ..Guyer.. 06/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4flzTA25h3Hx8BLbR5yzHMrId0ioNf_SSbcjlYfPTQOIT46U3stmAbvKuCpCUNNQuj1RDS_Is= Ths_CXFagdbZ3vfJrQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34059998 34339987 34589869 35219851 35639838 35719787
    35649714 34859698 34269795 33479877 33449923 33699965
    34059998=20


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