• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1213

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 17, 2022 22:02:25
    ACUS11 KWNS 172202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172201=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-172330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1213
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

    Areas affected...the Piedmont into coastal plain of North
    Carolina...South Carolina and Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...386...

    Valid 172201Z - 172330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, 386
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development, gradually evolving
    into growing clusters, will be accompanied by increasing outflow
    with strong surface gusts through 8-9 PM. Occasional localized
    gusts may exceed severe limits, and becoming potentially damaging.=20
    A new severe weather watch probably will be issued downstream of WW
    385 before it expires.

    DISCUSSION...In areas not impacted by ongoing convective
    development, a strongly heated (temps in the mid/upper 90s F) and
    seasonably moist boundary-layer appears characterized by steep lapse
    rates and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. This should support
    substantive continuing upscale growth of convection, ahead of a
    conglomerate outflow boundary now advancing to the southeast of the
    southern Appalachians. Propagation off the higher terrain is being
    aided by weak to modest (10-20 kt northwesterly deep-layer mean
    flow), which may be sufficiently strong, coupled with the
    thermodynamic profiles and precipitation loading, to support strong
    surface gusts at least occasionally approaching 50 kt.

    ..Kerr.. 06/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7bXBOFBCFNcUYoIZTVSUvuwsbdnuUalrq6a0ay02Fcfexoo1AElzI5nFP7fLNmXPg40XFfYOF= OvVY6iBitTWpA81os0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33648450 34318342 34718202 35058131 35478080 35717945
    36647830 36247643 34217912 32278332 33648450=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 22, 2023 23:57:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 222357
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222356=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-230130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1213
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and portions
    of eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...

    Valid 222356Z - 230130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms will remain capable of
    hail and damaging gusts into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Broad upslope across the Front Range has resulted in
    scattered strong to severe storms from eastern WY to western NE and northeastern CO early this evening. Storm coverage has gradually
    increased over the last couple of hours with numerous storm
    interactions resulting in some upscale growth. Despite cooling from
    anvil shading and consolidating storm outflow, remnant buoyancy,
    (1000-1500 J/kg of MCLAPE) and 40 kt of effective hear will continue
    to support storm organization this evening. Two stronger clusters
    are now evident, one just southeast of Denver, and the other near
    the WY/NE border. The primary severe risk is likely to remain
    concentrated with these clusters through the next couple of hours.
    Given the favorable buoyancy and shear, large hail will remain
    possible with some supercell structures. Upscale growth of the
    clusters may also support damaging gusts with the strongest storms.
    The severe risk should continue into this evening before nocturnal stabilization results in gradual downtrend in convective intensity
    into the overnight.

    ..Lyons.. 06/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9YyB8XhY7lzgnvin9wC-33H5gB18jTWiD1vSvnFBR8__1zVkuzhq9MlV4iVrQ4npmKuC7U632= QLcnEWKAnu-9aFJXAQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 40920575 41290630 41270708 41360749 41650758 41940733
    42440602 42510545 42590476 42710332 42130292 41500294
    40650323 39160362 38820371 38680410 38700435 39270531
    40070550 40460564 40920575=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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