• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1208

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 17, 2022 18:34:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 171833
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171833=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-171930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1208
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0133 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

    Areas affected...western North Carolina...northwest South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171833Z - 171930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds is increasing across western
    North Carolina and northwest North Carolina. A Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch will likely be needed prior to 19z.

    DISCUSSION...The leading edge of outflow associated with a
    long-lived MCS will move into the discussion area this afternoon,
    with thunderstorm development likely to increase within a moist,
    moderately unstable and largely uncapped environment. Effective
    shear is likely to increase somewhat over the next few hours,
    increasing the potential for more organized storms. The 12z NSSL-WRF
    high-res guidance suggests redevelopment of storms over the next few
    hours within this area, with a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps
    isolated large hail. Given these expectations, a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed prior to 19z.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 06/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bghuw0UcY24vlTAs8tYPhAoeYIZpB9kziQXLqXNv9Yl-rXqo-gSYjAaKaYfXLjqvaeTokUe2= ZtZCojB4hj_aqfgdYI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 35668300 36158249 36578048 36128057 35488047 35158083
    34608190 34318368 34918394 35498356 35668300=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 22, 2023 17:51:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 221751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221750=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-222015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1208
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico and
    adjacent portions of the western Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221750Z - 222015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly
    likely through 2-4 PM MDT. These may pose a risk for large hail and
    locally strong downbursts initially, with a supercell or two
    evolving and posing at least some risk for a tornado later this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Insolation within a seasonably moist easterly upslope
    flow into the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
    Raton Mesa vicinity is contributing to moderately large CAPE, in the
    presence of modestly steep lapse rates. Mid-level inhibition is
    gradually weakening, and deepening convection is already ongoing
    near the higher terrain. While one subtle short wave perturbation
    is progressing off to the east, through the Panhandle vicinity, an
    upstream perturbation may contribute to increasing large-scale
    ascent within the next few hours.

    Deep-layer westerly mean flow is weak (on the order of 15 kt), due
    to pronounced veering of wind fields with height, so eastward
    advection of intensifying storms off the higher terrain through late
    afternoon will be slow. However, vertical shear appears sufficient
    for supercells, which should tend to propagate southeastward.=20
    Strongest storms may eventually focus along a remnant convective
    outflow boundary south of the Raton Mesa, into the Texas Panhandle
    south of Dalhart, accompanied by increasing risk for large hail,
    locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-QdL4pS7FMeFFH8MuEJ66YrVHMEYU0-HHiHDHrstKbiKyFVqu0yBckykOT73YImiyMZv15o5d= 8kfl3FB4ihgdG5cA5E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37220491 36950358 36300254 34840316 35450518 36250506
    37220491=20


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