• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1207

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 17, 2022 16:54:21
    ACUS11 KWNS 171654
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171653=20
    WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-171830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1207
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...central/southern West
    Virginia...southwest Virginia...northeast Tennessee...northwest
    North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

    Valid 171653Z - 171830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across eastern portions of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383, and a new watch will be needed
    farther east prior to 18z.

    DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms continue along the leading edge of
    a severe MCS across eastern KY at 1650z. Leading edge
    reflectivities have increased recently as the MCS moves into a
    strongly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE at or above 3000
    J/kg and little convective inhibition based on deepening cumulus.=20
    Current indications are that the convective system will continue
    moving generally east this afternoon into a very favorable
    thermodynamic environment supporting a continued damaging wind
    threat. Isolated large hail also remains possible with the most
    intense updrafts. Deep-layer shear should increase modestly this
    afternoon, further supporting a forward-propagating MCS. A watch
    will be issued shortly.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 06/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7untbMdS3NBnp4t-mGGUIjyznoQV7cAsBMd3_W4H_Md-kBjrkaIfXvO5MQv81NX2syMmrMbKo= d_Dqi3-WX3lDW99wR0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

    LAT...LON 36318120 36478291 36998383 37698403 38998357 39188313
    39098191 38928108 38738043 38578016 37558003 36848020
    36318120=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 22, 2023 17:09:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 221709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221708=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-221915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1207
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into central and
    northeast Colorado and far western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 221708Z - 221915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
    central High Plains. Large hail will be the main concern, with 2+
    inch diameter hailstones also likely. A couple of tornadoes are also
    possible. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the impending
    severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed for surface temperatures to
    warm into the 70s F amid 50s F dewpoints (with 60+ F dewpoints noted
    farther east in northeast CO). As such, the boundary-layer is
    undergoing deepening and destabilization, with SBCAPE already
    approaching 2000 J/kg in spots and visible satellite showing
    deepening convection along the higher terrain of the Rockies. With
    continued destabilization, SBCAPE may approach 3000 J/kg given 8
    C/km mid-level lapse rates. While tropospheric flow is modest in
    magnitude, considerable veering with height from the surface to 500
    mb is contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs and over
    40 kts of effective bulk shear. Given the strong buoyancy and
    initial discrete modes of convection, supercell development is
    expected. Large hail will be the main threats with these storms, and
    2+ inch diameter stones appear likely with the strongest, sustained
    supercells. Furthermore, modest low-level hodograph curvature, the
    generation of locally higher amounts of near-surface vertical
    vorticity and 0-3 km CAPE over the DCVZ, and the presence of an
    outflow boundary north of LIC, may also promote the development of a
    couple of tornadoes.=20

    Given the overall expected coverage and magnitude of the impending
    severe threat, a WW issuance will be needed.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ysw3FMyQU6vakBJap3YL5b2ce1Ljl8Yq2RJn7Hui78L_mRsoATtrpXJKPxk45fyc07wAxxjF= j-7H0vaGIFMOuopISs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39570563 40660579 41310595 42000558 42560440 42510291
    41320270 40450283 39630324 39370381 39240522 39570563=20


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