ACUS11 KWNS 171640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171640=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-171845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Areas affected...southeast New York...Connecticut...Rhode Island...Massachusetts...New Hampshire...Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171640Z - 171845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
is expected this afternoon, with strong/locally damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms. Although a watch is not
currently anticipated, trends in thunderstorm development and
coverage are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Midday visible satellite imagery reveals gradual
erosion of low clouds across eastern/southern portions of the
discussion area, with daytime heating contributing to MLCAPE of 500
to locally 1500 J/kg in advance of the cold front. Composite
radar/lightning detection data show thunderstorms continuing to
develop across portions of ME, NH and western MA. Further heating
should result in pockets of moderate MLCAPE despite generally poor
midlevel lapse rates. Additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated as ascent associated with an upper trough pivots east
across the discussion area this afternoon. Strong low/midlevel flow
will result in southwesterly effective shear values in excess of 50
kts, supporting organized storm modes including line segments and
perhaps supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will
increase the strong/locally damaging wind potential with the
stronger storms.=20=20

Although coverage of the severe risk is expected to remain isolated,
trends will continue to be monitored.

..Bunting/Grams.. 06/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qBsKhl4YryrnHNhrFKL2yDmo70R636HEOwK5QIdiBBeZ-YeqeLeQq__zegLfa1NiL4UCPaOl= RWcD13-bV8lLeD7NQ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40777201 40617367 41657350 42557295 43657185 44667036
45146974 45526928 45576909 45476876 44996854 44286859
43776921 43297028 42727051 42337051 42247035 42296991
41806966 41396973 40937142 40777201=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 221633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221633=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221633Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible with developing storms
over the FL Peninsula this afternoon. The severe threat should
remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows ample clearing across the FL
Peninsula, resulting in boundary-layer destabilization and
subsequent intensification of convection over the last hour or so.
With continued heating, additional storms should develop across
central FL over the next few hours. Modest mid-level lapse rates
overspreading mid 70s F surface dewpoints will support well over
3000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE over the peninsula this afternoon.
Nonetheless, deep-layer shear should remain modest at best,
especially in the upper levels. Water-loaded downdrafts may
encourage a few damaging gusts, though an instance or two of large
hail may also occur with any of the more intense, discrete,
longer-lived updrafts that manage to develop. Nonetheless, the
severe threat should remain isolated overall and a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bjJsvpAqUIIALITVfF5CbwsucyQmWBkKAQJxkA6QA_CJGk6LI6t3m4Hz73wI8aau0T1rrGuh= 5_RIcBraccgsQK5yeU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 25448112 27518264 29378308 30078274 30768197 30428148
28658074 27348024 26568016 25958027 25448112=20


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