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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1202

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 17, 2022 08:29:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 170829
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170829=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-171030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska southeastward into central
    Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379...380...

    Valid 170829Z - 171030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379, 380
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and thunderstorm winds
    to 60 mph will continue through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...Two main areas of severe thunderstorm potential remain
    this morning: one across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas and
    another across northeast Missouri into central Illinois.=20

    Across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas, thunderstorms
    continue to redevelop within a warm-air advection regime. These
    thunderstorms are being fed within a CAPE reservoir in excess of
    3000 J/kg and effective-layer shear around 30 knots. RAP
    point-forecast soundings indicate these storms are originating just
    above the 850-mb level, and tapping into mid-level lapse rates
    around 7 C/km. Given the elevated nature of the thunderstorms and
    modest lapse rates, the primary concern with these thunderstorms
    will be severe hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The severe
    threat here may locally persist past the expiration of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 379, however, the localized nature of the threat
    should not require a new watch.

    To the southeast, across northeast Missouri and eventually into
    central Illinois, a well-organized cluster of thunderstorms
    continues to move east-southeast. The atmosphere along and ahead of
    these thunderstorms is extremely unstable, with CAPE values in
    excess of 4000 J/kg estimated by modified RAP soundings. However,
    unlike areas to the northwest, effective-layer shear is considerably
    less along and ahead of these thunderstorms, decreasing to less than
    20 knots across central Illinois. The well-organized nature of the
    existing thunderstorms and the extreme instability should compensate
    somewhat for the weak effective-layer shear resulting in a continued
    severe threat for the next few hours, with the primary concern being
    wind gusts around 60 mph and hail around 1 inch. Recent measured
    wind gusts across northeast Missouri of around 55 mph bear this out.
    The severe threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 will continue
    through the morning.

    ..Marsh.. 06/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6XW72OmmRdtipxYBHClTINdFc9I3LAo2mG8ZbjTyFj0RrPeqj_MOSob08wcjeQQ3AhsAzq82X= MEXTgaaeeijK_b9hE0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
    GID...

    LAT...LON 40709732 41479776 40969551 40709136 39918995 39038912
    38158939 39379483 40709732=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 22, 2023 02:20:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 220219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220219=20
    TXZ000-220415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0919 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

    Areas affected...eastern portions of the Texas South Plains

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 355...

    Valid 220219Z - 220415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 355 continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, and possibly
    a tornado, will likely continue for the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of severe storms
    moving southward across the eastern half of the South Plains region
    of Texas -- within central portions of Tornado Watch 355. The lead
    supercell is in the process of merging with what was a second cell,
    and while a bit disorganized at present, may reorganize into one
    large, rotating storm.

    This cluster of storms is moving within the axis of greatest
    instability (4500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), suggesting potential for
    storms to shift south-southeastward out of the bounds of WW 355 in
    the next hour and a half or so. With that said, CAMs continue to
    suggest diurnal weakening will commence over the next couple of
    hours, so it remains uncertain how much risk will extend
    south/southeast of the existing watch. Still, we will continue to
    monitor convective evolution, and potential that a new, small watch
    may be required across areas south of WW 355 and north of San
    Angelo.

    ..Goss.. 06/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-cdAKtIBGAD452vXF3l-KiVytBTLY7xlRCbvuLyM8iZoWXGU4ekkVRagCzxungsPOf3oCdSp= 8YOqzH21BcERFRSGsU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34210119 34440021 32829932 32179974 32420097 34210119=20


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