• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 16, 2022 22:23:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 162223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162223=20
    KSZ000-170030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

    Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162223Z - 170030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated sustained thunderstorm development is possible
    into the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the evolution of
    occasional supercell structures posing at least some risk for large
    hail, locally strong surface gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. It
    is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...At least attempts at sustained thunderstorm development
    are underway near a weak surface low, along a zone of stronger
    differential surface heating, beneath the periphery of a plume of
    warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. This is
    also near the northwestern periphery of prominent ridging around the
    500 mb level, but veering wind profiles with height beneath weak to
    modest westerly 500 mb flow may be contributing to sufficient shear
    to promote the evolution of supercell structures.

    It is possible that inflow into to this storm is or will
    increasingly emanate from a narrow corridor characterized by 70+ F
    dew points along the front, which is supporting strong to extreme
    CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. If low-level convergence and weak warm
    advection are able to continue to overcome inhibition and maintain
    thunderstorm development into the 00-02Z time frame, it could become
    augmented by increasing shear associated with a modest strengthening
    southerly low-level jet (up to 30 kt around 850 mb).

    ..Kerr/Bunting.. 06/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7sRgeiZRGBy4SzuhZQ5u2_Mjs2ofg7iJ-i34WVzYREPWAA-7U62HQ9umVFBkyQ1Zs4gth3TEF= Di_5NZ8BZGCKS7AksQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39630060 39659945 39529826 39209802 38839827 39010035
    39630060=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 21, 2023 23:39:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 212339
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212339=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-220115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...and
    into the Texas South Plains

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...

    Valid 212339Z - 220115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across the western
    half of WW 351, and may expand southward into the South Plains
    region with time. A new Tornado Watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken line of supercell
    storms extending from extreme southwestern Kansas southward to areas
    east and southeast of Amarillo. The convection is occurring near a
    composite dryline/outflow -- outflow which spread westward from
    earlier-day Oklahoma storms.

    A narrow axis of strong instability (mixed-layer CAPE values locally
    in excess of 4500 J/kg) is indicated along the boundary, which is
    fueling the ongoing storms, while low-level southeasterlies across
    the area topped by mid-level westerlies near 40 kt continue to
    provide favorable shear for both mid-level and low-level rotation.

    While very large hail remains the primary risk at this time, a
    couple of tornadoes will be possible, with the storm over Armstrong
    County Texas possibly having produced a brief/weak tornado recently.
    With time, storms should expand southward, into the South Plains
    region, which may require new WW issuance.

    ..Goss.. 06/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EY2-z412J2oGCxD91mS7yNHC0X2DHjX6-k9PO-TzwyVloCA7izinbs9bVpoTXYb_E0aH14W4= eRhnk0jgt9tni2a4oA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37030236 37550178 36940092 35670037 33889967 33070032
    33160096 34640188 37030236=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)