ACUS11 KWNS 162223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162223=20
KSZ000-170030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 162223Z - 170030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated sustained thunderstorm development is possible
into the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the evolution of
occasional supercell structures posing at least some risk for large
hail, locally strong surface gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. It
is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...At least attempts at sustained thunderstorm development
are underway near a weak surface low, along a zone of stronger
differential surface heating, beneath the periphery of a plume of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. This is
also near the northwestern periphery of prominent ridging around the
500 mb level, but veering wind profiles with height beneath weak to
modest westerly 500 mb flow may be contributing to sufficient shear
to promote the evolution of supercell structures.
It is possible that inflow into to this storm is or will
increasingly emanate from a narrow corridor characterized by 70+ F
dew points along the front, which is supporting strong to extreme
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. If low-level convergence and weak warm
advection are able to continue to overcome inhibition and maintain
thunderstorm development into the 00-02Z time frame, it could become
augmented by increasing shear associated with a modest strengthening
southerly low-level jet (up to 30 kt around 850 mb).
..Kerr/Bunting.. 06/16/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7sRgeiZRGBy4SzuhZQ5u2_Mjs2ofg7iJ-i34WVzYREPWAA-7U62HQ9umVFBkyQ1Zs4gth3TEF= Di_5NZ8BZGCKS7AksQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39630060 39659945 39529826 39209802 38839827 39010035
39630060=20
=3D =3D =3D
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