ACUS11 KWNS 162054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Maryland and northern Virginia.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

Valid 162053Z - 162230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms continue with a threat of
primarily damaging winds into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Several strong storms have developed over the mountains
and started drifting into northern Virginia and central Maryland.
However, these storms have weakened rather quickly after leaving the
terrain as they move into the more stable airmass closer to the
coast. The airmass ahead of these storms is destabilizing and could
destabilize enough for the severe weather threat to extend to at
least Chesapeake Bay. Farther east, destabilization may be
difficult, and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.=20

A second round of storms is still expected later this evening.
Therefore, watch 378 will likely remain in effect in the wake of the
ongoing cluster of storms.

..Bentley/Grams.. 06/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9izpkLerjSdxMxU_ob0XrP6RP_jWjo95_cJvCHHmx3KRejBEdnQ1YkIJ45wT4Fo_C-SUkBs7D= 4njsie3zM9eeJ8LVxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38777845 39357773 39487679 39127598 38467615 38037650
37927708 37937828 38157838 38297858 38777845=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 212249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212248=20
TXZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Texas...including
parts of the Hill Country region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212248Z - 220045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
is increasing across parts of central and southern Texas. New WW
issuance may be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a broad area with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s, across the Texas Hill Country region and adjacent areas.=20
This is supporting an extremely unstable environment, with
mixed-layer CAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range across a broad area.

Radar loop shows storms moving out of the Concho Valley and Edwards
Plateau area toward the Hill Country, with some upscale
growth/linear organization evident over the past half hour.

CAM guidance remains very inconsistent/untrustworthy -- both between
the various runs as well as over time within HRRR runs over the past
several hours. With that said, given the degree of CAPE evident,
and with this area on the western fringe of enhanced mid-level north-northwesterly flow aloft, expect storm coverage to continue
increasing, with organization into an MCS possible. New WW issuance
may be needed, east and southeast of the evolving convection.

..Goss/Thompson.. 06/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4x2Q2niQJaUdxdMRUdXijw52ut0TxRO_w4cJVkM26lXLOXhrre5Ioh72efKXwLNmlOnyYnKcI= 4wNRowA0lmuuKCT14M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29809947 30289897 30889888 31439844 31569756 30599627
29619639 28699747 28679861 29809947=20


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