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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1190

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 16, 2022 18:46:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 161846
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161846=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-162015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1190
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

    Areas affected...Western Maryland...eastern West Virginia...and
    northern Virginia.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161846Z - 162015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Continued storm development is likely through the
    afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed over the mountains in
    southern Pennsylvania this morning with a few severe thunderstorm
    warnings issued. Satellite and radar trends show additional
    development in the vicinity which should also pose a threat for
    strong to severe storms. Effective shear is in the 25 to 30 knot
    range which will support multicell clusters and occasional rotating
    updrafts. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be the primary
    threat through the afternoon, especially if any forward propagating
    clusters can develop. The primary limiting factor is the more stable
    airmass to the east, but southward moving clusters should be able to
    maintain themselves with moist/unstable air west of the surface
    trough.=20

    A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered if severe
    storms become more numerous/show greater organization.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OXtqMu7BYGdUWBPRw0HHxheeTXZX_B0GsdbpM2Nbl65uSNslzfsc-_CWm9jY7paOErGkBgJa= xPA9K0sZI2dNq8M-VM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38957926 39677868 39807793 39697757 39477749 38827748
    37667811 37177884 37217929 37987950 38957926=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 21, 2023 20:21:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 212021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212021=20
    TXZ000-212215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1190
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

    Areas affected...parts of north central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 212021Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated intense thunderstorm development
    probably will persist and pose a risk for very large hail and
    locally damaging wind gusts while moving southeastward across
    eastern portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex through 4-6 PM
    CDT. Initiation of additional storms remains unclear, but trends
    are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Downstream of a dissipating thunderstorm cluster,
    forcing for ascent associated with weak mid-level warm advection
    likely has supported the area of weak, high based convection now
    overspreading much of north central Texas. It appears that this
    activity is rooted above the strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
    layer. However, recent rapidly intensifying thunderstorm
    development to the north of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex probably
    is being forced through this layer, perhaps supported by lift
    associated with a gravity wave emanating from the early day
    convective cluster.

    Due to veering wind profiles with height, beneath 30 kt
    northwesterly 500 mb flow, deep-layer shear is strong and supportive
    of evolving supercell structures. Despite the strength of the
    mid-level inhibition, it appears that this could sustain intense
    convection, increasingly supported by near-surface inflow of
    seasonably high moisture content chacterized by extreme CAPE in
    excess of 4000 J/kg. Very large hail and locally damaging wind
    gusts are possible while activity tends to propagate across and
    south-southeast of eastern portions of the Metroplex late this
    afternoon.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9F_3lAHa-zmSDSygXJwNXu_FSz92MRLFD1mJuGGnqY7WJ4wFp98qHKsF4O_H5TyRuMFGXkA9a= QAWg84WITTWXQ27NF4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33419708 32969540 31149611 31949778 33439853 33419708=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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