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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1185

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 16, 2022 02:21:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 160221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160220=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-160345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1185
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

    Areas affected...east central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

    Valid 160220Z - 160345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm to the south of Emporia, KS may
    pose some continuing risk for severe hail and locally strong surface
    gusts for another hour or two, before perhaps spreading
    northeastward and weakening.

    DISCUSSION...Strong convection has become confined to an isolated
    intense cell, generally focused within an area of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the south of the broad and deep
    cyclone centered over the eastern Canadian Prairies. This has been
    supported by shear on the southern fringe of the stronger cyclone
    flow, and inflow of unstable air emanating from a boundary-layer
    characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to 4000 J/kg.=20=20

    As mid-level heights rise and boundary-layer cooling progresses
    during the next few hours, thunderstorm intensity seems likely to
    wane, though it is possible remnant convection may begin to shift
    back to the north/northeast before dissipating.

    ..Kerr.. 06/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iSHKrYaK4RUHVjK5SL48b0R5Jd8slFItqgGyNV5TVL630lIOFnACvIQdm2Ojr1KiaNpHmt0C= mJnEQixNdH_KBfRFbk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38319611 38779496 38459434 37879590 37899694 38319611=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 21, 2023 06:25:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 210625
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210625=20
    KSZ000-210930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1185
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

    Areas affected...most of central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 210625Z - 210930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage tonight over much of
    central Kansas, with marginal hail and conditional damaging-wind
    potential.

    DISCUSSION...The first storms have formed over west-central KS
    recently, situated near the nose of the surface mid 70s F dewpoint plume/theta-e axis which extends southward into western OK. A
    secondary theta-e gradient stretches from south-central NE toward
    Wichita, separating the lower and upper 60s F dewpoints. Given the
    orientation of the initial storms, it appears they may be rooted in
    the moist layer between 850-700 mb.

    Area VWPs indicate southeasterly winds at 925 mb, veering to
    south/southeast at 850 mb and then west/southwest at 700 mb where
    they are weak. This results in a looping low-level hodograph with
    little length aloft, which should favor very slow-moving storms.

    Given MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg over western KS on the warm side of the
    boundary and ample precipitable water, this area of storms is
    anticipated to grow. Weak shear and large MLCAPE may support brief
    hail cores, but the primary concern is for storms to eventually
    produce an outflow pool, and possibly propagate southeastward with damaging-wind potential. If this scenario plays out, a watch could
    be needed.

    ..Jewell.. 06/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64sOZe35wieuy0121h4IBbN1W96TrTSSE9UUrZyJvpkdjsZ4SXaASng6SrV-UmYUS_4lH8jAS= UlCm4vOj8nM1oHnvwA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38329999 38770036 39340029 39559978 39449868 38889751
    38269693 37999678 37739678 37529707 37479757 37689877
    38329999=20


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