ACUS11 KWNS 160053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160053=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of north-central Illinois into
east-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

Valid 160053Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary severe
threat into the evening hours. Storms along the Mississippi River
may progress into a modestly favorable environment across
north-central Illinois, and a WW issuance may be needed downstream
in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of multicells and transient supercells has
become established along the trailing cold front from the WI/IL
border into east-central KS over the past few hours, with a few of
the storms producing gusts up to 70 mph and sub-severe hail. Ahead
of the cold front/storms, a narrow corridor of minimal MLCINH
remains, with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted via the 00z mesoanalysis.
With widespread 40+ kts effective bulk shear in place, transient
supercells will remain capable of producing damaging gusts and large
hail so long as the boundary-layer airmass remains buoyant. Guidance
suggests that a buoyant airmass will remain in place for at least a
few more hours, including in north-central IL, which may need a WW
issuance in the next couple of hours if storms can remain organized.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9KtN3VPbnJ80yhuwNr8pIwBjGB9pI5r14Ybkp4bnzutL5ziwcFA_0If3yrtjvlpgT7mCrPm_= TuzYknp1-BrVtMcCm4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
ICT...

LAT...LON 38309637 39879367 41049171 42278982 42528906 42488836
42118779 41728772 41278822 40638937 39999041 39319194
38709312 38209455 38069545 38309637=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 160104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160104 COR
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of north-central Illinois into
east-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

Valid 160104Z - 160230Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
continues. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary severe
threat into the evening hours. Storms along the Mississippi River
may progress into a modestly favorable environment across
north-central Illinois, and a WW issuance may be needed downstream
in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of multicells and transient supercells has
become established along the trailing cold front from the WI/IL
border into east-central KS over the past few hours, with a few of
the storms producing gusts up to 70 mph and sub-severe hail. Ahead
of the cold front/storms, a narrow corridor of minimal MLCINH
remains, with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted via the 00z mesoanalysis.
With widespread 40+ kts effective bulk shear in place, transient
supercells will remain capable of producing damaging gusts and large
hail so long as the boundary-layer airmass remains buoyant. Guidance
suggests that a buoyant airmass will remain in place for at least a
few more hours, including in north-central IL, which may need a WW
issuance in the next couple of hours if storms can remain organized.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4EAGONk9C96BQkMJE9YFRSfYv1mFvxMtR_h5DT5fyYK2IWVSOKtUZQLG4J2YmKdoC3uRKzVxQ= jTYmDWhRpMXHBebIWk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
ICT...

LAT...LON 38309637 39879367 41049171 42278982 42528906 42488836
42118779 41728772 41278822 40638937 39999041 39319194
38709312 38209455 38069545 38309637=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 210450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210450=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347...

Valid 210450Z - 210645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
continue for a couple more hours across parts of the northern High
Plains.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Rapid
City, South Dakota shows a cluster of strong to severe storms from
far eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota. These storms are
located near and to the north of a quasi-stationary front, where
low-level convergence is maximized. The RAP suggests that MLCAPE
near the boundary is in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and that 0-6 km
shear is near 40 knots. This area is also located near an axis of
steep mid-level lapse rates, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are
estimated to be near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely continue
support a severe threat over the next couple hours. Supercells and
short bowing line segments will have wind damage potential. Isolated
large hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8t96xZ0b0xgIPD2KNRuGy_wlIZhyNpCSr4YVkz3_cDThhTinS4FyIECHw5UAgokpsit7AUQ-s= f_9zKI7oYUcrIZtEW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 45270316 45300257 45040217 44470210 43880259 42900367
42720453 42900490 43510508 44150444 45050351 45270316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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