• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1183

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 16, 2022 00:36:15
    ACUS11 KWNS 160036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160035=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-160230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1183
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

    Areas affected...portions of western New York into northern
    Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 160035Z - 160230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity may increase across
    portions of western New York into northern Pennsylvania through the
    evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main
    threats. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
    need of a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has been underway over the past
    hour across Genesee/Livingston County, NY, along the eastern fringes
    of a low-level WAA regime. Despite the presence of large-scale upper
    ridging, latest water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis depict a small
    500 mb vort max across southern Ontario cresting the ridge and
    ejecting into the Upper Hudson Valley, likely serving as the main
    dynamic forcing mechanism for convective initiation. It is possible
    that storm coverage and intensity may increase through the evening
    hours. If so, ample buoyancy is in place, with up to 3000 J/kg
    MLCAPE (and minimal MLCINH) driven by 70 F surface dewpoints beneath
    7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Lower 80s F surface temperatures
    suggest that the boundary layer is still mixed enough to support a
    damaging gust threat over the next few hours with any of the more
    intense storms that can develop/become sustained. RAP forecast
    soundings show modestly curved low-level hodorgraphs, with up to 200
    m2/s2 effective SRH. When also considering the modest mid-level
    lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear, transient
    supercell structures may develop and an instance or two of severe
    hail cannot be ruled out.

    Since upper support and overall deep-layer ascent is expected to
    remain modest, questions remain regarding how widespread the severe
    threat could become. Conditions are being monitored for the need of
    a WW issuance pending an upward trend in observed storm coverage.

    ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RU9670qUSxSCfUuwwy_KBi5csLzJMhWDrBYRvpw66lNW4A-rbk_RZp5b6OVLuGPSBfPoPwWx= CsicoAYJOyMufs0sEc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 42947890 43217838 43217791 42657724 41967703 41447701
    41087733 41157799 41457858 42317900 42947890=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 21, 2023 01:40:45
    ACUS11 KWNS 210140
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210140=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-210345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1183
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0840 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

    Areas affected...Central Dakotas...Northern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...345...

    Valid 210140Z - 210345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344, 345
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
    hours from the central Dakotas southward into far northern Nebraska.
    Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a north-to-south quasi-stationary front located across the central Dakotas. MLCAPE
    along this corridor is from 2000 to 4000 J/kg according the RAP. One
    area of storms is located near a maximum in instability across
    north-central North Dakota, with a second located in southern South
    Dakota near another instability max. Water vapor imagery shows a
    shortwave trough over the central High Plains. As this feature
    approaches from the southwest, large-scale ascent will continue to
    be favorable for convective development. The HRRR suggests that the
    greatest convective coverage will be across central South Dakota
    over the next few hours. In addition to the instability, 0-6 km
    shear along and near the front is near 45 knots with 700-500 mb
    lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for
    supercells with large hail. Wind damage will also be likely with
    supercells and short line segments.

    ..Broyles.. 06/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ACopA4oyV585a4zaR7v6whs9He94jpaV5-xjkqqGY92idrfjDqKa1jmTnkSP1iF7DGmKDQ9E= 2PLHwE0o9VY5Tr-i4k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 48979882 48999944 48530012 47900093 47380160 46550205
    44940151 43290164 42690154 42410124 42400075 42780042
    44340032 45810046 46890003 48489870 48979882=20


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